Monday, February 8, 2010

And I Wonder Why I Lose

So far today I've dropped about 60 bets in maybe 150 hands online. This hand I just played really has it all. I get 3-bet by a hand I have dominated, which proceeds to out flop me. Then I catch beautiful runner runner asshole cards in order to lose the absolute maximum by way of turning the nuts and then getting rivered by a bizarre and almost impossible to believe back door flush.

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 524299
The Official Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with K of hearts J of spades
3 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (7 SB) K of spades T of spades A of clubs (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) Q of clubs (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls

River: (8.5 BB) 5 of clubs (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls

Final Pot: 12.5 BB
Hero mucks K of hearts J of spades
SB shows T of clubs K of clubs (a flush, Ace high)
SB wins 12 BB
(Rake: $3.00)


jesse8888 said...

To be clear, there really is nothing exceptional about this hand, or losing 60 bets in 150 hands. The hand kind of illustrates why the second part is true.

that_pope said...

For him to be incorrect in 3 betting KTs against your button open, you have to be playing way too tight. If that is the case, then you are losing much more value than just being outflopped in one hand.

jesse8888 said...

Against roughly my opening range KTs has 52-53 percent equity. So you're right he's fine to 3-bet it there, it would just have been nice if I could have lost less than 6 big bets is all.

The blindman said...

If he has only 52-53% equity, doesn't that make your button opening range a bit tight? When in doubt, steal more!

Unknown said...

I have been following your blog for a couple of months and have greatly enjoyed your revelations of being a prop in live games. As you have noted in a recent post, however, playing online is a vastly different ball game. Weird variance is part of the online game and I would like to share with you that a stop-loss strategy works for me. I play 50NLHE at Full Tilt and it often seems to be the case that once the horrendous suck outs start, they aren't going to stop.

A couple of nights ago I got stacks in with AQs against AQs. What looked like a split pot on a flop of AQx turned out to be runner runner flush for the villian. Okay, that isn't nice but it happens. Fine! Suck it up like a man and get on with the job. Then, on a different table, the following happened:

Different villian had previously 3 bet my open (KJs) of $2.25 to $20. Weirdly aggressive to the point of being spewy. Obviously I folded and made a mental note to look forward to the possibility of him trying that one on when I had a super premium hand. A couple of dozen hands later......

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players -
The Official Hand History Converter

Villian = UTG with Ac Ks

BTN: $32.35
SB: $50.00
BB: $50.75
UTG: $73.20
UTG+1: $51.75
MP1: $46.45
Hero (MP2): $68.25
CO: $53.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with Kc Kh
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $2.25, 2 folds, UTG raises to $20, Hero raises to $63, 1 fold, UTG raises to $73.20 all in, Hero calls $5.25 all in

Flop: ($139.50) 3d 4h 2h

Turn: ($139.50) 8s

River: ($139.50) 5h

(Note I misclicked trying to get it all in).

It is true to say that I would have been far less upset if villain had simply paired his Ace to win the hand. Would I have called the all-in against a tight player? Mostly never, but that isn't the point. This was only an example of a bullying lagtard getting very, very lucky. In the heat of the moment is that thought enough to make me feel sanguine about the outcome? Mostly never.

Final result? Close the window and grind it out at 10NLHE until I feel the ineffable confidence that the horrible beat storm has passed. Too many times I have kept playing at my usual stakes only to lose 5-6 BI on more beats where I get it in as a clear favourite.

Yeah, stop loss works for me if for no other reasons than:

1). It gives me time to get over the pain and not feel like I have to turn a 3 hour session into an open ended session in an effort to weather the storm of variance.
2). Dropping down in stakes to a level where I am a certain winner helps repair the bank roll and bolster the illusion that I don't actually suck at poker.

In summary, when I drop 2-3 BI beause I can't get traction and make some good hands in a session I am fine. That's poker! Dropping nearly 3 BI (including my table winnings) in 2 hands is my personal limit of emotional tolerance.

Best regards.

jesse8888 said...


That's with a 42% opening range. Both blinds in this situation were loose over-defenders, and against players like that it doesn't make much sense to come in firing with J7 or 65 suited.

Captain R said...

I got a fever; and the only prescription is more strat comments plz!

The blindman said...

Jesse: fair enough given your description of the blinds.