Thursday, December 23, 2010

Chronicles: Part 2

Right into it as per usual:

Laying Down the Ladies

SoCal 20 full game. I open QQ utg, older "soft" looking Asian man calls HJ, HU. He's basically unknown to me but obviously just cold called first in.

J44r

I bet/3.

K putting a club draw

I bet/fold.

There's no other way, is there?

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Good fold. KJ and A4s are typical fish cold calling hands. You can't counterfeit his two pair or catch up to trips so you have 2 outs almost always. I really can't see any hand he would play this way that you beat given the read.

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This hand was super easy as far as both Mr. Mom and I were concerned. Not a whole lot to it; I have a good hand but the action is screaming that I'm beat so I fold.

Big Pot Madness

I'm trying to review 3 hands a day. Can I put you in the rotation?

Live full 20, 3 folds, 3 limps, I limp OTB with 65hh. 6 ways.

632hss

4 checks, CO bets, I raise, sb fold, BB 3 bets, 2 folds, CO caps.....

Reads: BB is an old white guy who's not awful. He can be aggro, knows whenish to fold, etc. I guess he can have a FD but it seems unlikely.

CO is basically a fish. He does random things, limps terrible hands, etc. His cap honestly is probably draw heavy. However, 54s is 100% in his range.

Can I continue?

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Hm. You're getting... 8:1? With a pair, a straight draw, AND a flush draw? I think you can sign me up.
The BB has to have a pretty big hand, right? I'd expect a c/3b to be a way tighter range than a c/r. Maybe something like 77-TT/JJ (Yes, I think there are players who fit that non-horrible description who might check TT-JJ here), sets, 54, two pair... some 6x hands but imr, is he going to c/3b 86?
I think it's pretty clear you're not going to fare well against either player's range since even the draws are going to be in good shape with either overs, pairs, or straight draws to go along with them. But the thing is that the more they can have overpair and better 6x types of hands, the more 4/5/6 outs you start adding to your hand.
I'd be a little surprised if you had less than somewhere around the high teens equity in the pot. And I'm willing to take the risk of making a decision in the worst case scenario that the turn goes check/bet because I think there's at least as decent a chance that you have an easy decision when it goes bet/call or check/check (or bet/raise too, that's usually going to be an easy decision as well). Your implieds aren't great on two pair/trips I guess but of course they should be excellent if you backdoor your flush.

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You speak truths, technically. But my pair is of extremely questionable value, given our shared fear of an overpair or kicker problem, my gutterball could be at a chop and might need to dodge literally half the deck on the river, and the backdoor FD....well that's the bright spot. I thought about the hand more and realized without that I think I have a very clear fold, but with it I wanted to call. 8:1 is quite a price.....but I nit-folded. It's just tough to take two to the face with basically a dirty gutter.

Turn pairs the 3 or the 2, check check, river 5, check bet call, SBs 88 loses to A4o no spades. LOL-gambool!

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results oriented = bad fold 5 outs 8:1 plus free look at river. ;-)
Seriously though, I forgot to add that I was thinking this was about the minimum price I'd want to have to call. Like, I don't know what the best pair you limp preflop here is, but I'd guess that your hand is better than 77. And 88. Would you fold those? Is this even a meaningful question?
I mean, I'm not saying your pair is good, just that it gives you a few more outs against the overpair part of SB's range. Admittedly, this puts us in a really crappy spot if it goes bet/call/? turn; bet/fold/? river.

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It depends on my mood and table conditions. Sometimes I raise the 65s, and a low as 77. Sometimes I might limp 99.

I think with something like 77-99 I'm pretty committed to getting to showdown on safe boards; I just have the best hand so much more often, I think it makes up for the lack of outs. Thing is with 65 my outs are all filthy, since a 6 might be no good and obviously a 5 makes the board kinda straightening.

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I'm one for two on predictions, as the eights fare significantly better than the sevens.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.527% 18.94% 02.59% 1760929 240860.67 { 6h5h }
Hand 1: 46.638% 45.94% 00.70% 4271728 65218.67 { JJ-66, 33-22, A6s, K6s, 63s-62s, 32s, A6o, K6o, 63o-62o, 32o }
Hand 2: 31.835% 29.48% 02.35% 2741733 218624.67 { 88-22, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s-A4s, As3s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, K6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Q6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, J6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, T6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, 96s, 86s, 75s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A5o-A4o, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.861% 19.42% 00.44% 2286425 51689.50 { 7c7d }
Hand 1: 43.228% 42.85% 00.38% 5044261 44756.50 { JJ-66, 33-22, A6s, K6s, 63s-62s, 32s, A6o, K6o, 63o-62o, 32o }
Hand 2: 36.911% 36.64% 00.27% 4313680 31599.00 { 88-22, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s-A4s, As3s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, K6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Q6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, J6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, T6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, 96s, 86s, 75s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A5o-A4o, 75o+, 65o, 54o }


equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 23.556% 22.82% 00.73% 2871250 91994.67 { 8c8d }
Hand 1: 41.027% 40.31% 00.72% 5070375 90655.67 { JJ-66, 33-22, A6s, K6s, 63s-62s, 32s, A6o, K6o, 63o-62o, 32o }
Hand 2: 35.418% 34.94% 00.48% 4395055 60362.67 { 88-22, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, A6s-A4s, As3s, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, K6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Q6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, J6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, T6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, 96s, 86s, 75s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A5o-A4o, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

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I don't know what to say about this hand. I loused it up horribly. In retrospect the flop is an obvious call, even though two players really like their hands. I don't know how on Earth I folded and must have been on tilt at the time. Coach agrees.

2 comments:

Alan Bostick said...

I'm not in Babar's or PJ's league, but I'd be interested in joining your hand review team.

jesse8888 said...

You are in like Flynn.