Lots of people think online poker is rigged. They think that people are colluding in teams to whipsaw innocent bystanders out of pots (possible), that some accounts can see the hole cards of other players (did happen), that some accounts know what board cards are coming (pretty sure this is impossible because sites use continuous shuffling), or that sites actually go so far as to rig the cards in order to make pots bigger and therefore generate more rake (simply absurd). The argument for this last point is that "you see horrible beats all the time, there's just no way that should happen that often." The counter-argument to that is that you see so many more hands online (I know guys that 8 table short handed games, playing close to 1000 hands an hour....I'm lucky if I play 1500 hands a week) that you'll see beats more frequently.
In the last week I have seem some pretty serious shit from a probabilistic point of view. I saw MG go all in on the flop and turn over AA on a board of A84-8-J. As he's tabling his hand with that weird MG grin on his face the other guy with a hand can only muster "believe it or not, that's no good" while tabling quad 8s. How often should aces full run into quads? I don't really want to figure it out because I am close to end-stage food coma right now (when going out to dinner with Danielle you will inevitably hear these words...."I wish we'd just split something, I'm so full I'm going to explode. Can I see the dessert menu? Yes I'll have the mud pie cake with oreo shell the size of a cantaloupe." Yet somehow I'm the one toeing the obesity line, with a BMI of 28.2, while she could comfortable fit down one leg of the jeans I have from high school that I keep dreaming someday I'll be able to wear again) but it can't be often. I heard stories (corroborated by multiple sources) that a certain human being lost 17 racks of chips in the Garden City 40/80 half kill game. That's 17 racks of chips. 1700 individual chips. Worth $10 each. Have you ever had 1700 of something? That's 3400 foot long subway sandwiches. That's enough money to go on Jared's diet for nearly a decade. Sure, most of the play was 4-handed against tough, aggressive biggish game regulars. But this has to be like a 4 or 5 sigma event. But I don't know, I've heard about such a 17 rack loss twice now, the other being in a 3 chip 6 chip game, so I don't know.
And finally, I saw Hammerin Hank flop a royal flush. He raised under the gun and got a couple of cold calls from late position, then checked the QJT all clubs flop. His female opponent bet, a megafish called, and he check/raised. Already alarm bells were going off in my head that something was up. What hand would Hank check/raise with here? Just monsters....and on that board, what monsters are there that he'd raise under the gun with? The woman called and the fish folded after what seemed like 2 minutes of thought. A 4th club hit on the turn and Hank led out. The woman folded, and Hank looked distraught. "He flopped a royal flush!" I cried out and Hank tabled the goods for good measure. A bru-haha ensued and Steve the floor man was alerted that Hank deserved some sort of jackpot bonus for flopping a royal. 10 minutes later he returned.
"Ladies and gentleman, our good friend Hank just flopped a royal flush, and has won the following collection of prizes"
"Bay 101 stationary"
1 by 1.5 inch post-it note used for seat change lists.
"Bay 101 pen"
A pen
"Bay 101 lighter"
A pack of matches
"Bay 101 h'ourderve"
A packet of jelly.
"Bay 101 facial"
A hand wipe.
"And Bay 101 flatware"
Disposable chopsticks.
With great flourish Steve tossed each object to Hank, and there was much rejoicing. Afterward he lamented "It was close, we were out of h'ourderves so I had to go to the back and get this one." This got me to thinking, "How rare of an event is this?" Here's the math:
If I play 40 hours a week 50 weeks a year, I will play 2000 hours a year. Assuming I see 40 hands an hour, thats 80,000 hands a year. The chances of flopping a royal flush (making a royal with 5 cards) are about 1 in 650,000.
4 possible royals / (52 choose 5) possible five card hands.
4/(52!/(47! * 5!))
Trust me....that's about what it is. If you see every flop with every suited broadway combo (which is far from true...I folded one yesterday and should have folded another today) you'd flop a royal once every 8 years if you played 40 hours a week. So for government work, which is all we're striving for here, once a decade is a good estimate. Now that's rare.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Just an Update I Guess
I've actually won 3 days in a row, which has been very nice. Today I took a few brutal beats (I managed to flop T77r and lose with A7s, for example) but in general things went pretty well and I took home two more racks than I brought with me. I also had a long talk with Babar (instigated entirely by him) in which he encouraged me to work on the mental aspects of my game, perhaps seek some coaching, and in general to not be too alarmed that things haven't been working out so well the past 5 months. The talk made me think about a lot of things and also gave my confidence a shot in the arm, as he forced me to go through the exercise of generating a life time graph. The thing didn't look nearly as bad as I'd feared it might, and seeing all those wins really made me remember that I have crushed these games and, as far as I know, haven't suffered any brain damage recently. The wins will come, and once they do I'll be even stronger mentally than I was before. Thanks Babar.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Oaks 15 LDO
I 3-bet JJ red. 7 way surprisingly tight.
964hh
They check to me and I bet cause I has pear. Three (3) call and a c/r from a limper. I 3 bet and all 3 limpers fold. If he has a draw a draw I just owned him.
Jc
He checks and calls.
3h
He donks I call T2hh good sir. Upon comment I concur: "totally standard"
964hh
They check to me and I bet cause I has pear. Three (3) call and a c/r from a limper. I 3 bet and all 3 limpers fold. If he has a draw a draw I just owned him.
Jc
He checks and calls.
3h
He donks I call T2hh good sir. Upon comment I concur: "totally standard"
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Get a Load of This
Live action blogging once more. Today's action finds our young hero once again stuck 3 racks after a 3 hour stint in the Jesus seat of the Neal game.
A terrible fish limps in middle position. I limp the button with J9hh. Trust me...it's FINE. Blinds call 4 ways for the spectacle that is my life.
J82 rainbow with one heart
Blinds check and the fish bets. Let's pause here and check his hole cards:
77, black
OK, that's not that terrible so far. He should raise preflop but betting here 3rd to act is correct by a landslide. He does afterall have a pair.
I raise and the blinds fold. Now at this point my opponent can pretty safely muck. There is no draw other than T9, and I'd never raise out the blinds with that hand. Actually my raise here is super exploitable, but since my opponents don't even know what that word means, let alone how to take advantage of it (fold) it's fine. He calls.
J82-7 two hearts now
That's not an asshole card. I don't know what it is, but it's beyond asshole. After the hand Omar (the BB) informs me that he folded a 7, so we are looking at an old-fashioned 1-Outter. Back to the action, wherein my opponent donks. I am stunned, sure I'm beat, but hopelessly tied to the pot. I have a flush draw and a gutshot in a 5-bet pot. So I call. Wait for it....
J82-7-9 no flush obviously
At this point the poker gods have constructed one last smoting, dropping a card that makes my opponent check! He can't have the straight and I have top two! I bet and he turbo calls obviously, and I am spared no dignity. I have poker nightmares that don't go this poorly.
A terrible fish limps in middle position. I limp the button with J9hh. Trust me...it's FINE. Blinds call 4 ways for the spectacle that is my life.
J82 rainbow with one heart
Blinds check and the fish bets. Let's pause here and check his hole cards:
77, black
OK, that's not that terrible so far. He should raise preflop but betting here 3rd to act is correct by a landslide. He does afterall have a pair.
I raise and the blinds fold. Now at this point my opponent can pretty safely muck. There is no draw other than T9, and I'd never raise out the blinds with that hand. Actually my raise here is super exploitable, but since my opponents don't even know what that word means, let alone how to take advantage of it (fold) it's fine. He calls.
J82-7 two hearts now
That's not an asshole card. I don't know what it is, but it's beyond asshole. After the hand Omar (the BB) informs me that he folded a 7, so we are looking at an old-fashioned 1-Outter. Back to the action, wherein my opponent donks. I am stunned, sure I'm beat, but hopelessly tied to the pot. I have a flush draw and a gutshot in a 5-bet pot. So I call. Wait for it....
J82-7-9 no flush obviously
At this point the poker gods have constructed one last smoting, dropping a card that makes my opponent check! He can't have the straight and I have top two! I bet and he turbo calls obviously, and I am spared no dignity. I have poker nightmares that don't go this poorly.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Calling Down is the New Raising
I got three texts from Pete today where he detailed the following hands to me:
Hand 1
Some fish power limps the CO and Pete raises in the small blind with AA. The board wasn't really explained, but I imagine it involved an ace, a king, and some other cards, because Pete managed to get eight (8) bets out of the guy's Ace King on the big streets alone.
Hand 2
Pete flops the nut straight on a board of like 765 or something and puts in either 3 or 4 bets on the flop. The turn and river are both 2s and the guy with AA raises him on the river, allowing him to 3-bet. He drags another monster.
Hand 3
With the mighty 72o in the big blind he gets a free flop of 872 with two clubs. He check/raises and gets 3-bet and only calls. The turn Qh he check/raises again, and a 3rd player is still calling all of these bets. The river brings the 7 of clubs and Pete manages to check/raise both players a 3rd time.
In a nutshell, this is out Pete runs. He played all of these hands well, and maybe even better than I would have. I'd be pretty unlikely to get that 3rd bet with the nut straight, but I might opt to bet/3-bet the full house in hand 3. Anyway....In the last week I've made 3 very fun call downs in 3 different casinos. This is what I have to do to win:
Hand 4
The venue is Hustler Casino in Gardena, California. I have been in the game for an hour or two, having sat at 10:30am in a short game. We're now full, but the action is still being driven almost entirely by the manic currently occupying the 7 hole. Originally he was in the 2 seat but moved to the 7 shortly after I sat in the 6. I then moved to the 9 just as the game filled up and he kinda got stuck there. I had this guy pegged as a lunatic from the moment I saw him. 30 years old or so, Asian, wearing full on Ed Hardy gear, sitting with 8 racks of chips in front of him (all in racks) and three (3) wrappers of hundreds labeled as $5K each. That's $19,000 for a 25/50 limit game. Anybody with that many chips is in some way insane. Either he plays enough hands to have won that much money, or he is insane for bringing it. Either way...insane.
So my blinds are in the kill zone of this guy's constant open raising, but it doesn't matter too much because the game is rather loose. Every single time it folds to him in the cutoff or on the button, however, he open raises. I start keeping track and get to 5 for 5 before this hand comes up (for the record I folded 4 of the 5 of those hands). He opens on the button with literally two napkins and I behold the mighty Q2 of clubs. Not quite as much as I'd like, but a clear call. The flop is:
Ac Kc 6s
And I check/raise him for value. He 3-bets and it hits me that I have to show down this hand pretty much no matter what comes. I consider a 4-bet but realize he's never folding anything ever so why bother. I call only.
6d
A great card for me, as it doesn't change a damn thing. I call him again.
7s
Well, this is the moment. I check and he bets. I think for a second and then come to my senses. This is a super easy call, so I sling in $50.
"Good call, you got it" he says. This is music to my ears, but I wait for a moment before turning over my hand. A strong hand would often be fastrolled here, and my opponent is clearly well-versed in the handling of being called on the river and holding air. I do not fastroll, and he tables his hand, Jack-Five of clubs. I flip over my hand and tip the dealer in one motion (using one hand for each) and a murmur passes over the table. Someone finally says "Looks like we have a professional here" and a chuckle is had by all. The next two times it folds to the maniac he opts to leave my blind alone, and when seat 1 opens up he moves to it instantly.
Hand 5
The venue is Bay 101 in San Jose, and I'm playing 40/80 because the game is absurdly good. Like, better than most 20/40 games I sit in. It's just incredible, and I even have a great seat. The table maniac open raises in the high jack and I 3-bet the cutoff with AThh. The button folds, but MCI, my lone competent foe, calls 3 cold in the small blind. "A competent player calling 3-cold in the small blind?" you ask? Yes...he's competent, which pretty much means he has a very solid hand here. In other words, I'm in big trouble. The maniac calls and we see the flop 3 ways
984 with two spades
They both check to me and I fire my c-bet. MCI calls and the maniac check/raises. At 14:1 I decide I can't fold and consider briefly raising to knock out MCI. In retrospect I probably should have, but instead opt just to call. MCI calls, and the pot has swollen to almost 8 big bets.
984ss-Qh
Look at that, I've picked up a gut shot. MCI checks and the maniac bets. At 9:1 folding would be insane, unless I can pick up a read that MCI making some elaborate slow play (or opting to check/raise AQ), so I call. MCI folds, setting up a beautiful situation for me. He almost surely had be me beat, but was faced with over-calling and just couldn't do it with whatever he was holding (almost certainly Ace King).
984ss-Qh-2d
A total brick. The maniac bets and I pause for a moment. At this point it still hadn't occurred to me that I could call the guy down, mainly because I figured MCI was still gonna be in the pot. But since he's now gone, I realized I pretty much had to call and hope to catch the maniac with a busted flush draw. So call I did and he....mucked face down instantly. MCI turns to me and says "Big slick any good?" and as much as I try to hide the answer I'm sure my face told the truth.
Hand 6
The venue is The Oaks 15/30 game just this morning. A new player, whom I've never seen before, just sat down in seat 4 and was asked if he'd like to post (the button is in seat 5). His response of "How much? 6 chips?" strikes me as odd, because he surely knows it's 3, but whatever. The dealer informs his as much and he posts. The pot folds to me in the low-jack (seat 2) and I open raise with AJcc. He calls, along with the button, but both blinds fold. I'm wearing my ear buds listening to music, but not so loud that I can't hear what's going on. The flop is:
Qc 8h 6h
I fire and they both call. Not great, but there's lots of cheese on this board they could call with.
3d
I was considering checking and giving up but realize that it's pretty likely nobody has anything. I fire again, and the poster calls but the button reluctantly folds. Not great...but I suppose OK. I resolve to check the river and probably fold, depending what comes.
Qd
Well then....that's an interesting card, since there is basically no way this guy could not have raised at some point with a queen by now. Still, betting is silly, since he's probably gonna play perfectly against another barrel (calling with exactly every hand that beats me and folding exactly every hand that doesn't) so I check.
He turbo bets. Like as in as soon as I check he reaches for chips as fast as he can and fires them into the pot. He does it in a way that looks very strong, so strong in fact it's hard not to think he's trying to look strong. I pause and think and the speech begins.
"Oh come on, you've come this far. You know you've got pocket kings, maybe ace queen. It's only 6 more chips"
I take a moment to process all of this and decide he's completely full of shit. I stare directly at him and he squirms. Like literally squirms and diverts his eyes from my gaze. He then pushes his cards with a chip on them sorta to the left like and towards the dealer and it just looks so awkward it's hard to believe. I peel off 6 chips and call and he says "Nice call, I told you you had it" and turns over T9o (which had a double gutter). I roll my hand and he can only comment "Ace Jack? Wow...."
Hand 1
Some fish power limps the CO and Pete raises in the small blind with AA. The board wasn't really explained, but I imagine it involved an ace, a king, and some other cards, because Pete managed to get eight (8) bets out of the guy's Ace King on the big streets alone.
Hand 2
Pete flops the nut straight on a board of like 765 or something and puts in either 3 or 4 bets on the flop. The turn and river are both 2s and the guy with AA raises him on the river, allowing him to 3-bet. He drags another monster.
Hand 3
With the mighty 72o in the big blind he gets a free flop of 872 with two clubs. He check/raises and gets 3-bet and only calls. The turn Qh he check/raises again, and a 3rd player is still calling all of these bets. The river brings the 7 of clubs and Pete manages to check/raise both players a 3rd time.
In a nutshell, this is out Pete runs. He played all of these hands well, and maybe even better than I would have. I'd be pretty unlikely to get that 3rd bet with the nut straight, but I might opt to bet/3-bet the full house in hand 3. Anyway....In the last week I've made 3 very fun call downs in 3 different casinos. This is what I have to do to win:
Hand 4
The venue is Hustler Casino in Gardena, California. I have been in the game for an hour or two, having sat at 10:30am in a short game. We're now full, but the action is still being driven almost entirely by the manic currently occupying the 7 hole. Originally he was in the 2 seat but moved to the 7 shortly after I sat in the 6. I then moved to the 9 just as the game filled up and he kinda got stuck there. I had this guy pegged as a lunatic from the moment I saw him. 30 years old or so, Asian, wearing full on Ed Hardy gear, sitting with 8 racks of chips in front of him (all in racks) and three (3) wrappers of hundreds labeled as $5K each. That's $19,000 for a 25/50 limit game. Anybody with that many chips is in some way insane. Either he plays enough hands to have won that much money, or he is insane for bringing it. Either way...insane.
So my blinds are in the kill zone of this guy's constant open raising, but it doesn't matter too much because the game is rather loose. Every single time it folds to him in the cutoff or on the button, however, he open raises. I start keeping track and get to 5 for 5 before this hand comes up (for the record I folded 4 of the 5 of those hands). He opens on the button with literally two napkins and I behold the mighty Q2 of clubs. Not quite as much as I'd like, but a clear call. The flop is:
Ac Kc 6s
And I check/raise him for value. He 3-bets and it hits me that I have to show down this hand pretty much no matter what comes. I consider a 4-bet but realize he's never folding anything ever so why bother. I call only.
6d
A great card for me, as it doesn't change a damn thing. I call him again.
7s
Well, this is the moment. I check and he bets. I think for a second and then come to my senses. This is a super easy call, so I sling in $50.
"Good call, you got it" he says. This is music to my ears, but I wait for a moment before turning over my hand. A strong hand would often be fastrolled here, and my opponent is clearly well-versed in the handling of being called on the river and holding air. I do not fastroll, and he tables his hand, Jack-Five of clubs. I flip over my hand and tip the dealer in one motion (using one hand for each) and a murmur passes over the table. Someone finally says "Looks like we have a professional here" and a chuckle is had by all. The next two times it folds to the maniac he opts to leave my blind alone, and when seat 1 opens up he moves to it instantly.
Hand 5
The venue is Bay 101 in San Jose, and I'm playing 40/80 because the game is absurdly good. Like, better than most 20/40 games I sit in. It's just incredible, and I even have a great seat. The table maniac open raises in the high jack and I 3-bet the cutoff with AThh. The button folds, but MCI, my lone competent foe, calls 3 cold in the small blind. "A competent player calling 3-cold in the small blind?" you ask? Yes...he's competent, which pretty much means he has a very solid hand here. In other words, I'm in big trouble. The maniac calls and we see the flop 3 ways
984 with two spades
They both check to me and I fire my c-bet. MCI calls and the maniac check/raises. At 14:1 I decide I can't fold and consider briefly raising to knock out MCI. In retrospect I probably should have, but instead opt just to call. MCI calls, and the pot has swollen to almost 8 big bets.
984ss-Qh
Look at that, I've picked up a gut shot. MCI checks and the maniac bets. At 9:1 folding would be insane, unless I can pick up a read that MCI making some elaborate slow play (or opting to check/raise AQ), so I call. MCI folds, setting up a beautiful situation for me. He almost surely had be me beat, but was faced with over-calling and just couldn't do it with whatever he was holding (almost certainly Ace King).
984ss-Qh-2d
A total brick. The maniac bets and I pause for a moment. At this point it still hadn't occurred to me that I could call the guy down, mainly because I figured MCI was still gonna be in the pot. But since he's now gone, I realized I pretty much had to call and hope to catch the maniac with a busted flush draw. So call I did and he....mucked face down instantly. MCI turns to me and says "Big slick any good?" and as much as I try to hide the answer I'm sure my face told the truth.
Hand 6
The venue is The Oaks 15/30 game just this morning. A new player, whom I've never seen before, just sat down in seat 4 and was asked if he'd like to post (the button is in seat 5). His response of "How much? 6 chips?" strikes me as odd, because he surely knows it's 3, but whatever. The dealer informs his as much and he posts. The pot folds to me in the low-jack (seat 2) and I open raise with AJcc. He calls, along with the button, but both blinds fold. I'm wearing my ear buds listening to music, but not so loud that I can't hear what's going on. The flop is:
Qc 8h 6h
I fire and they both call. Not great, but there's lots of cheese on this board they could call with.
3d
I was considering checking and giving up but realize that it's pretty likely nobody has anything. I fire again, and the poster calls but the button reluctantly folds. Not great...but I suppose OK. I resolve to check the river and probably fold, depending what comes.
Qd
Well then....that's an interesting card, since there is basically no way this guy could not have raised at some point with a queen by now. Still, betting is silly, since he's probably gonna play perfectly against another barrel (calling with exactly every hand that beats me and folding exactly every hand that doesn't) so I check.
He turbo bets. Like as in as soon as I check he reaches for chips as fast as he can and fires them into the pot. He does it in a way that looks very strong, so strong in fact it's hard not to think he's trying to look strong. I pause and think and the speech begins.
"Oh come on, you've come this far. You know you've got pocket kings, maybe ace queen. It's only 6 more chips"
I take a moment to process all of this and decide he's completely full of shit. I stare directly at him and he squirms. Like literally squirms and diverts his eyes from my gaze. He then pushes his cards with a chip on them sorta to the left like and towards the dealer and it just looks so awkward it's hard to believe. I peel off 6 chips and call and he says "Nice call, I told you you had it" and turns over T9o (which had a double gutter). I roll my hand and he can only comment "Ace Jack? Wow...."
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
A Moral Certainty
Bravos and I were playing poker last week on a day in which I actually managed to hit 'n run the 40/80 game for close to rack in the first 45 minutes of my day. I assured him, however, as I was hovering just a few hundred bucks above even with a couple of hours left to play, that it was a moral certainty that I would not be allowed to go home up on that day. I've gotten to the point that I can just feel my wins slipping away. Some would argue that I need to keep myself in a positive frame of mind, and that by not doing so I am actually doing something to cause my misfortune. This is bullshit. Perhaps my bad attitude is causing me to play bad, but it is no way affects how the cards fall. I was hoping to make it at least a week or so before I had to post another therapeutic "I run so fucking bad it is beyond comprehension to most intelligent human beings" post, but then today happened. I showed up at Bay 101 around 12:15 and got into a 20/40 game at 12:30 (I was able to play late today since my softball team had a game at 9pm, in which not only did I play horribly, but also watched my team blow a 5 run lead in the bottom of the last). And within minutes, the beatings commenced.
I am seated at a table that can only be described as amazing. In fact, amazing does not do the table justice. When Willie, a top five all time 20/40 donator, was replaced by a winning regular, I still thought the table was fantastic. On to our first hand of the day, literally the first time I voluntarily put money into the pot.
Willie limps as do two other players, and I raise 99 in the small blind. Everyone calls, and the flop brings:
987 with a flush draw
I bet, get raised, and am 3-bet by Willie. I cap it and we're 3 ways. The turn is an offsuit ace and they both just call. The river 6, which also completes a flush, actually saves me $40, as I check and they both do as well. Both of them hold 65s for the flopped straight.
Next up I turn my hand into a bluff. Willie limps in and a true blue Asian maniac raises on the button. I call with A2o in the big blind because this guy has been caught raising pretty freaking light in spots like this already (like, K3o, for example....of course in that hand the flop was KQ7 and I had Q4s in the big blind, turned a flush draw, and called him all the way down). The three of us see:
J92
And I check/raise him. He calls, then calls twice more as the turn and river bring a Ten and then a Queen. On the river I know full well I'm bluffing, but it's a bluff that should work very well. The board reads 29TJQ for crying out loud. He's gotta fold his one pair hands here, doesn't he? Not only does he not fold a one pair hand...he does not fold pocket 4s. He literally calls me with pocket 4s. To this point I'd thought the man was crazy. Now I put him into a special "unbluffable" category reserved for very special players like Neal and Norm from The Oaks. OK, time to regroup.
A few players limp, Kenny (who actually still owes me $100 from election night last year when he took McCain straight up and welched on the bet after finding out the Vegas odds were over 5:1) raises on the button and I 3-bet with aces in the small blind. There are many players and the pot could feed me more a few months already just with the preflop action:
665dd
I lead, there is a call, and the aforementioned maniac raises. Kenny 3-bets and makes a speech, and I cap it (Kenny has JJ-KK here and I have him cooked. The maniac has a draw, either 87 or diamonds). The turn brings the single worst card in the deck, the 9 of diamonds and I am forced to check. They both check right back at me! Aiyah, I could win! The river in an innocuous Q of clubs and I bet. The maniac calls and so does Kenny. The maniac tables 87o, just like I thought, and drags the pot. How did he not bet the turn? If I knew, I'd tell you, but I don't know. These are the players who take my chips and add them to their towering stacks, not even bothering to erect a small plaque in my honor for paying for the west wing addition.
Next up we have an asshole card hand from none other than Tom B. I raise Ace Jack under the gun, which I'd actually done one orbit ago. Tom B says "Ace Jack again" and I respond "nope, I have a set." We're still preflop. The maniac calls two cold from the small blind, thus ensuring that the pot gets big enough that I can get myself into trouble. The flop comes down:
T74r
The maniac checks and I bet. Tom raises, which on this board means he has a pair. The maniac calls two cold and I call, closing the action at 12:1. Ladies and Gentleman, the Asshole Card!
T74-Jr
The maniac checks and I check. Tom B bets, the maniac calls and I spring an oh so clever check/raise. Tom B looks at me kind of funny and just calls. The maniac folds, and the river bricks off. Tom B calls and shakes his head when I table my hand. He of course has JT, and there were 43 good cards in the deck for me out of the 45 he and I weren't holding. Not spiking an ace for the win is understandable. But do I have to hit the card that costs me an extra $120? And to those of you who say "will he really pay off all 3 big bets here with a pair of tens" I respond with "shit bitch this is Tom fucking B he hasn't fold a pair since 2004 fool" with a completely straight face.
What's better than losing a bunch of bets in a small pot? Losing a bunch of bets in a gigantic one then check/folding the river when you make your flush, of course! The maniac and Kenny limp in early position, and Tom B then limps out of turn on my left. I shrug and chuck in 4 chips with 86 of hearts. This is kind of marginal, but at a table like this I can take some preflop liberties. Vu raises on the button, Double O (that's right, he's here also. My table has 3 players I've written about before AND a maniac) calls the BB and we all call for 6 happy soldiers going to the flop:
T42hh
The action checks to Kenny on my immediate right, and he bets. I call only, not wanting to face the field with multiple bets cold since I basically can't win without improving against Kenny's entire donking range. Every single player calls, and we now have a 9 big bet pot.
T42-K with still two hearts
It checks to Kenny who again bets. I call and Tom B calls. Vu now raises (Vu actually got into a fistfight with a dude named Joel a few weeks back....this is what I deal with), and Double O calls two cold. The maniac misclicks and folds his hand, and I ask you now what would be awesome? A 3-bet from Kenny you say? DING DING DING, we have a winner! After the 3-bet I pause and attempt to count the bets in the pot before quickly determining it to be countably infinite and giving up the ghost. There are...A FREAKING LOT....of bets in there. 9 before this street, and something like 9 more out there already with a few more probably to follow. The problem, as always it seems, is Double Oh. Does he have a flush draw? You'd seem to think so. He just called two bets cold without much thought. But does he really? I need 10 bets in the pot only if I'm drawing clean and live at this sucker (maybe a few more because it's pretty obvious that two of the hearts that pair the board are no good...so 14 bets). I decide to call. Tom B folds, and Vu and Double Oh both chuck in one more bet, for a grand total of 22 bets in the pot (I got 10:1 on my draw). The river brings:
T42hh-K-Kh
Just wow. For Kenny to 3-bet the turn he pretty much had to have flopped a set or held top two pair. He's basically a nit. He bets, I tank for a second, and for once in my life make a good lay down. Everyone else folds and Kenny can't believe what just happened while showing KTo for the nut boat. Just....wow. As an aside, Double Oh folding his hand closing the action pretty much guarantees my flush draw was the only one out there. So I was drawing live, but got there with one of the 2 cards that wouldn't let me win instead of the 7 that would. Now, my friends, it is time to move up to where they respect my raises.
The 40/80 game was almost as good as my 20/40 table. We had a triplet of casino employees without a clue in the world as to how to play the game, a new-found regular who plays for 19.5 hours at a time and makes all the same mistakes as a 6/12 fish, and an Oaks regular who confided in me that he was moving to Austin, Texas tomorrow and that this 40/80 game was his last hurrah. Then there was another maniac....I mean, it was just epic. The first hand I play I am dealt pocket tens and 3-bet casino employee A. Employee B calls the three bets all in (actually she only has 2 bets) and the we see the flop 3 ways after employee C actually manages to limp/fold. The board runs out like 8 high until the turn, at which point employee A folds. The river brings an ace and I say to employee B "Ace, right?" and she dutifully rolls Ace Four off for now two pair. I break even on the hand, but without that river ace win about $340. She did have 5 whole outs though, so it's pretty standard.
My next two beats aren't really beats, but serve to illustrate why I am two steps shy of being admitted to an insane asylum. First, the pot is open limped, then raised, then re-raised, then cold-called. I am in the small blind with T8s and am looking at 5-6 way action, but also at putting 2.5 bets into the pot. This is actually a pretty close decision, as I'd probably chuck in the chips from the big blind. With a small pair, a hand that can play well woops (way out of position) I'd be more inclined to call. But drawing hands are tougher, so I opt to fold. 5 players see the flop of:
765 with a flush draw
And much action does go in. The turn pairs the board and for my brief customary moment I am happy as 3 players remain for one bet a piece. The river 9, however, seals the deal. Two players get to show down and the ~16 bet pot is won by someone with two pair. My over-ended straight draw would have taken all the chips. Again, not really a beat, as I played well and am confident my fold was correct, but it's impossible not to notice these things.
Just a few moments later I limp along with 33 in what promises to be a big one (there are already 3 limps in front of me....this is 40/80 I'm not even kidding). MCI, my lone competent opponent, raises on the button. Everyone calls back to one of the table's fish, who decides to limp/3-bet. Now I know to a moral certainty (there it is again) that MCI is gonna cap it. Anything that he raised after 4 limpers he's certainly going to cap after one of them decides to back raise. So I'm now faced with basically calling 3 cold to get into a 7 way capped pot in a pure set-mining operation. 2 bets would be a super easy call. 3 bets is closer, but still I think in the call range with this many opponents. I know Kit Cloud Kicker would approve, anyway. So I call and we take the flop for 28 small bets.
964
The problem with set mining in truly gigantic pots (or perhaps the best part....not sure) is that you can pay 1 bet to see the turn. Which I do, along with about 3 other players. There is also some chance MCI will check back the turn if he doesn't actually have a pair yet.
964-9
When the action gets to me it's only 18:1 closing the action, and two players are all in. I cannot call unless there is some chance my 3s are the best hand, and there simply is not. I muck.
964-9-3
Once more I am smoted. MCI's KK drags the monstrosity of a pot unimproved, and I wonder what I did to deserve this.
The next beat is also interesting. I limp along with KTo in the cutoff (I have to once again stress that this game was unbelievable, better than most 20/40s I've played in in the last month) after a couple of limpers. The board runs out:
J98-7-4
Note that on the flop I am once again "over-ended", meaning that while I do have an open ended straight draw, I also have a free roll against anyone holding just a loan ten. If a queen falls, My straight is King high, where as theirs would only be queen high. After the turn 7 falls I raise two players and get called down. They have KTo and T6o, and we chop up the pot 3 ways. My total profit on the hand was less than $80. There is a single extra $10 chip, which goes to the BB as he is closest to the button. After that is sorted out, the extra $5 chip goes to the next player. So even there I lose.
For my next trick, another asshole card. I raise two limpers with KQo and Roger, who has replaced Elvis in the game, defends his blind (probably big blind, but possibly small) and we see a flop 4 handed.
JT4r
I bet and Roger check/raises. The other players fold and I 3-bet (I'm not sure if I'm planning to barrel the turn or take a freebie, but my equity here is massive even headsup so it's not really important). He calls only and then the asshole card rears it's ugly head:
JT4-Q
Well any question as to whether or not I'll bet has just been solved. Afterward I thought about it a bit and that card really does crush his range but I have top pair good kicker and an open ended straight draw. I have to bet. He raises and I call. Now for the fun part.
JT4-Q-K
Wow. He checks! Had he bet I'd simply have called, as a very likely holding for him is two pair (QJ, JT, something like that) and he'd have turned over his 98o for the turned straight. But no, he checks, and I tank for a second and decide top two has a value bet here. So I own myself and he just shakes his head and calls and drags the pot. Good game life.
Looking at my notes I just realized I have like 10 more of these to go through...it really was a fucking fantastic day. Speeding up now, again all this is still at 40/80.
I raise a horrible limper with K9s. He literally has almost any two cards. The big blind calls, we flop KJ2-2 and he calls me on the flop, then donks the turn. I call down and he has AKo for an "expertly played" monster. Once again I don't think he'll hang a plaque on the wing of his chip stack I just built.
Roger limps and the maniac completes the small blind. I raise JJ in the big blind, Roger calls, and the maniac 3-bets. I call and call all the way down on the Q74-T-9 board. What does the maniac have?
"Two pair."
"Two pair?!?!"
"Two pair" (tables 74s)
Next I limp with QJcc and play a pot heads up with Young Jae. I turn a flush and win the hand. Young Jae had KK and started the hand with less than 3 big bets, so no action goes in after the flop. Not a beat, but if he had more chips....they'd be mine.
Next up I make another snug fold of QJhh on the button after one raise and one cold-call. The board runs ot 987-T-5 rainbow and I once again wonder who is punishing me (and yes, it was only one bet on the flop so I'd have seen the turn). I have to stress that I'm not one of those players who laments when he folds a shitty hand that would have won. It really only bothers me when I make what I believe to be a very close but correct fold and then then miss my government stimulus bailout money that all my other opponents collect every 3rd hand.
Next up I draw dead and get there. I have 9h8c in the big blind in a seven (7) way limped pot. The flop is 764ccc and the bet comes from Buffy on my immediate left. I want to fold but 4 players calls, so I'm getting 12:1 closing the action. I call and pray. The 4h hits on the turn and I again want to fold, but again she bets and now 3 players call and I call getting 11:1 closing the action. She is the only player who can have a flush, everyone else is drawing. The river 5d gives me a 9-high straight and I call on bet to see her flopped Jack high flush. I may have played bad here, but I don't think so. It's very hard to fold at the prices I was getting, not to mention closing the action each time.
Next up I flop a nut flush in a 6 way limped pot with Ace Deuce of hearts. The bad beat here? The hand before this my opponent in seat 7 lit most of his chips on fire and only has $130 left to play out this hand. He flops a queen high flush and is all in before the flop action is complete. MCI makes a good fold and I win a tiny ass pot. Seat 7 would have given me 6-7 big bets with his hand, had they only been in his stack.
At this point I glance down at my stack and realize I am somehow stuck less than $300 for the entire day. It is 7:15pm and I have to leave by 8:30 to go to softball. I soldier on, losing small pot after small pot, then receive a pair of death blows in my final orbit. Literally in my last 9 hands I take these two:
It is raised, 3-bet, and called in front of me. I cap QQ in the small blind and MCI calls in the big blind. We go off 5 ways and remember I have Queens. QUEENS! The flop is 984 and MCI raises my lead. Only one other player calls and I just call him down on the 3-8 turn and river to see his aces. That he picked up on the big blind. When it was capped before it got to him.
Two hands later I raise Sudos limp with KQcc in the cutoff and get 3-bet by the SB. I flop 763cc and put in one raise, hoping against hope that the SB will get tricky and give me a free card (this guy has an over pair here like always). He doesn't and leads the turn and checks when the Ace hits on the river. I don't bet, knowing he won't fold, and I get shown KK and obviously can't beat it with my king high flush draw.
So once again, thanks for listening. On the day I lost $1300, but it felt like a lot more. As usual I almost escaped with a much better number, but dribbled away a rack in my last hour of play. Today is another day, I suppose, but it's really getting tough.
I am seated at a table that can only be described as amazing. In fact, amazing does not do the table justice. When Willie, a top five all time 20/40 donator, was replaced by a winning regular, I still thought the table was fantastic. On to our first hand of the day, literally the first time I voluntarily put money into the pot.
Willie limps as do two other players, and I raise 99 in the small blind. Everyone calls, and the flop brings:
987 with a flush draw
I bet, get raised, and am 3-bet by Willie. I cap it and we're 3 ways. The turn is an offsuit ace and they both just call. The river 6, which also completes a flush, actually saves me $40, as I check and they both do as well. Both of them hold 65s for the flopped straight.
Next up I turn my hand into a bluff. Willie limps in and a true blue Asian maniac raises on the button. I call with A2o in the big blind because this guy has been caught raising pretty freaking light in spots like this already (like, K3o, for example....of course in that hand the flop was KQ7 and I had Q4s in the big blind, turned a flush draw, and called him all the way down). The three of us see:
J92
And I check/raise him. He calls, then calls twice more as the turn and river bring a Ten and then a Queen. On the river I know full well I'm bluffing, but it's a bluff that should work very well. The board reads 29TJQ for crying out loud. He's gotta fold his one pair hands here, doesn't he? Not only does he not fold a one pair hand...he does not fold pocket 4s. He literally calls me with pocket 4s. To this point I'd thought the man was crazy. Now I put him into a special "unbluffable" category reserved for very special players like Neal and Norm from The Oaks. OK, time to regroup.
A few players limp, Kenny (who actually still owes me $100 from election night last year when he took McCain straight up and welched on the bet after finding out the Vegas odds were over 5:1) raises on the button and I 3-bet with aces in the small blind. There are many players and the pot could feed me more a few months already just with the preflop action:
665dd
I lead, there is a call, and the aforementioned maniac raises. Kenny 3-bets and makes a speech, and I cap it (Kenny has JJ-KK here and I have him cooked. The maniac has a draw, either 87 or diamonds). The turn brings the single worst card in the deck, the 9 of diamonds and I am forced to check. They both check right back at me! Aiyah, I could win! The river in an innocuous Q of clubs and I bet. The maniac calls and so does Kenny. The maniac tables 87o, just like I thought, and drags the pot. How did he not bet the turn? If I knew, I'd tell you, but I don't know. These are the players who take my chips and add them to their towering stacks, not even bothering to erect a small plaque in my honor for paying for the west wing addition.
Next up we have an asshole card hand from none other than Tom B. I raise Ace Jack under the gun, which I'd actually done one orbit ago. Tom B says "Ace Jack again" and I respond "nope, I have a set." We're still preflop. The maniac calls two cold from the small blind, thus ensuring that the pot gets big enough that I can get myself into trouble. The flop comes down:
T74r
The maniac checks and I bet. Tom raises, which on this board means he has a pair. The maniac calls two cold and I call, closing the action at 12:1. Ladies and Gentleman, the Asshole Card!
T74-Jr
The maniac checks and I check. Tom B bets, the maniac calls and I spring an oh so clever check/raise. Tom B looks at me kind of funny and just calls. The maniac folds, and the river bricks off. Tom B calls and shakes his head when I table my hand. He of course has JT, and there were 43 good cards in the deck for me out of the 45 he and I weren't holding. Not spiking an ace for the win is understandable. But do I have to hit the card that costs me an extra $120? And to those of you who say "will he really pay off all 3 big bets here with a pair of tens" I respond with "shit bitch this is Tom fucking B he hasn't fold a pair since 2004 fool" with a completely straight face.
What's better than losing a bunch of bets in a small pot? Losing a bunch of bets in a gigantic one then check/folding the river when you make your flush, of course! The maniac and Kenny limp in early position, and Tom B then limps out of turn on my left. I shrug and chuck in 4 chips with 86 of hearts. This is kind of marginal, but at a table like this I can take some preflop liberties. Vu raises on the button, Double O (that's right, he's here also. My table has 3 players I've written about before AND a maniac) calls the BB and we all call for 6 happy soldiers going to the flop:
T42hh
The action checks to Kenny on my immediate right, and he bets. I call only, not wanting to face the field with multiple bets cold since I basically can't win without improving against Kenny's entire donking range. Every single player calls, and we now have a 9 big bet pot.
T42-K with still two hearts
It checks to Kenny who again bets. I call and Tom B calls. Vu now raises (Vu actually got into a fistfight with a dude named Joel a few weeks back....this is what I deal with), and Double O calls two cold. The maniac misclicks and folds his hand, and I ask you now what would be awesome? A 3-bet from Kenny you say? DING DING DING, we have a winner! After the 3-bet I pause and attempt to count the bets in the pot before quickly determining it to be countably infinite and giving up the ghost. There are...A FREAKING LOT....of bets in there. 9 before this street, and something like 9 more out there already with a few more probably to follow. The problem, as always it seems, is Double Oh. Does he have a flush draw? You'd seem to think so. He just called two bets cold without much thought. But does he really? I need 10 bets in the pot only if I'm drawing clean and live at this sucker (maybe a few more because it's pretty obvious that two of the hearts that pair the board are no good...so 14 bets). I decide to call. Tom B folds, and Vu and Double Oh both chuck in one more bet, for a grand total of 22 bets in the pot (I got 10:1 on my draw). The river brings:
T42hh-K-Kh
Just wow. For Kenny to 3-bet the turn he pretty much had to have flopped a set or held top two pair. He's basically a nit. He bets, I tank for a second, and for once in my life make a good lay down. Everyone else folds and Kenny can't believe what just happened while showing KTo for the nut boat. Just....wow. As an aside, Double Oh folding his hand closing the action pretty much guarantees my flush draw was the only one out there. So I was drawing live, but got there with one of the 2 cards that wouldn't let me win instead of the 7 that would. Now, my friends, it is time to move up to where they respect my raises.
The 40/80 game was almost as good as my 20/40 table. We had a triplet of casino employees without a clue in the world as to how to play the game, a new-found regular who plays for 19.5 hours at a time and makes all the same mistakes as a 6/12 fish, and an Oaks regular who confided in me that he was moving to Austin, Texas tomorrow and that this 40/80 game was his last hurrah. Then there was another maniac....I mean, it was just epic. The first hand I play I am dealt pocket tens and 3-bet casino employee A. Employee B calls the three bets all in (actually she only has 2 bets) and the we see the flop 3 ways after employee C actually manages to limp/fold. The board runs out like 8 high until the turn, at which point employee A folds. The river brings an ace and I say to employee B "Ace, right?" and she dutifully rolls Ace Four off for now two pair. I break even on the hand, but without that river ace win about $340. She did have 5 whole outs though, so it's pretty standard.
My next two beats aren't really beats, but serve to illustrate why I am two steps shy of being admitted to an insane asylum. First, the pot is open limped, then raised, then re-raised, then cold-called. I am in the small blind with T8s and am looking at 5-6 way action, but also at putting 2.5 bets into the pot. This is actually a pretty close decision, as I'd probably chuck in the chips from the big blind. With a small pair, a hand that can play well woops (way out of position) I'd be more inclined to call. But drawing hands are tougher, so I opt to fold. 5 players see the flop of:
765 with a flush draw
And much action does go in. The turn pairs the board and for my brief customary moment I am happy as 3 players remain for one bet a piece. The river 9, however, seals the deal. Two players get to show down and the ~16 bet pot is won by someone with two pair. My over-ended straight draw would have taken all the chips. Again, not really a beat, as I played well and am confident my fold was correct, but it's impossible not to notice these things.
Just a few moments later I limp along with 33 in what promises to be a big one (there are already 3 limps in front of me....this is 40/80 I'm not even kidding). MCI, my lone competent opponent, raises on the button. Everyone calls back to one of the table's fish, who decides to limp/3-bet. Now I know to a moral certainty (there it is again) that MCI is gonna cap it. Anything that he raised after 4 limpers he's certainly going to cap after one of them decides to back raise. So I'm now faced with basically calling 3 cold to get into a 7 way capped pot in a pure set-mining operation. 2 bets would be a super easy call. 3 bets is closer, but still I think in the call range with this many opponents. I know Kit Cloud Kicker would approve, anyway. So I call and we take the flop for 28 small bets.
964
The problem with set mining in truly gigantic pots (or perhaps the best part....not sure) is that you can pay 1 bet to see the turn. Which I do, along with about 3 other players. There is also some chance MCI will check back the turn if he doesn't actually have a pair yet.
964-9
When the action gets to me it's only 18:1 closing the action, and two players are all in. I cannot call unless there is some chance my 3s are the best hand, and there simply is not. I muck.
964-9-3
Once more I am smoted. MCI's KK drags the monstrosity of a pot unimproved, and I wonder what I did to deserve this.
The next beat is also interesting. I limp along with KTo in the cutoff (I have to once again stress that this game was unbelievable, better than most 20/40s I've played in in the last month) after a couple of limpers. The board runs out:
J98-7-4
Note that on the flop I am once again "over-ended", meaning that while I do have an open ended straight draw, I also have a free roll against anyone holding just a loan ten. If a queen falls, My straight is King high, where as theirs would only be queen high. After the turn 7 falls I raise two players and get called down. They have KTo and T6o, and we chop up the pot 3 ways. My total profit on the hand was less than $80. There is a single extra $10 chip, which goes to the BB as he is closest to the button. After that is sorted out, the extra $5 chip goes to the next player. So even there I lose.
For my next trick, another asshole card. I raise two limpers with KQo and Roger, who has replaced Elvis in the game, defends his blind (probably big blind, but possibly small) and we see a flop 4 handed.
JT4r
I bet and Roger check/raises. The other players fold and I 3-bet (I'm not sure if I'm planning to barrel the turn or take a freebie, but my equity here is massive even headsup so it's not really important). He calls only and then the asshole card rears it's ugly head:
JT4-Q
Well any question as to whether or not I'll bet has just been solved. Afterward I thought about it a bit and that card really does crush his range but I have top pair good kicker and an open ended straight draw. I have to bet. He raises and I call. Now for the fun part.
JT4-Q-K
Wow. He checks! Had he bet I'd simply have called, as a very likely holding for him is two pair (QJ, JT, something like that) and he'd have turned over his 98o for the turned straight. But no, he checks, and I tank for a second and decide top two has a value bet here. So I own myself and he just shakes his head and calls and drags the pot. Good game life.
Looking at my notes I just realized I have like 10 more of these to go through...it really was a fucking fantastic day. Speeding up now, again all this is still at 40/80.
I raise a horrible limper with K9s. He literally has almost any two cards. The big blind calls, we flop KJ2-2 and he calls me on the flop, then donks the turn. I call down and he has AKo for an "expertly played" monster. Once again I don't think he'll hang a plaque on the wing of his chip stack I just built.
Roger limps and the maniac completes the small blind. I raise JJ in the big blind, Roger calls, and the maniac 3-bets. I call and call all the way down on the Q74-T-9 board. What does the maniac have?
"Two pair."
"Two pair?!?!"
"Two pair" (tables 74s)
Next I limp with QJcc and play a pot heads up with Young Jae. I turn a flush and win the hand. Young Jae had KK and started the hand with less than 3 big bets, so no action goes in after the flop. Not a beat, but if he had more chips....they'd be mine.
Next up I make another snug fold of QJhh on the button after one raise and one cold-call. The board runs ot 987-T-5 rainbow and I once again wonder who is punishing me (and yes, it was only one bet on the flop so I'd have seen the turn). I have to stress that I'm not one of those players who laments when he folds a shitty hand that would have won. It really only bothers me when I make what I believe to be a very close but correct fold and then then miss my government stimulus bailout money that all my other opponents collect every 3rd hand.
Next up I draw dead and get there. I have 9h8c in the big blind in a seven (7) way limped pot. The flop is 764ccc and the bet comes from Buffy on my immediate left. I want to fold but 4 players calls, so I'm getting 12:1 closing the action. I call and pray. The 4h hits on the turn and I again want to fold, but again she bets and now 3 players call and I call getting 11:1 closing the action. She is the only player who can have a flush, everyone else is drawing. The river 5d gives me a 9-high straight and I call on bet to see her flopped Jack high flush. I may have played bad here, but I don't think so. It's very hard to fold at the prices I was getting, not to mention closing the action each time.
Next up I flop a nut flush in a 6 way limped pot with Ace Deuce of hearts. The bad beat here? The hand before this my opponent in seat 7 lit most of his chips on fire and only has $130 left to play out this hand. He flops a queen high flush and is all in before the flop action is complete. MCI makes a good fold and I win a tiny ass pot. Seat 7 would have given me 6-7 big bets with his hand, had they only been in his stack.
At this point I glance down at my stack and realize I am somehow stuck less than $300 for the entire day. It is 7:15pm and I have to leave by 8:30 to go to softball. I soldier on, losing small pot after small pot, then receive a pair of death blows in my final orbit. Literally in my last 9 hands I take these two:
It is raised, 3-bet, and called in front of me. I cap QQ in the small blind and MCI calls in the big blind. We go off 5 ways and remember I have Queens. QUEENS! The flop is 984 and MCI raises my lead. Only one other player calls and I just call him down on the 3-8 turn and river to see his aces. That he picked up on the big blind. When it was capped before it got to him.
Two hands later I raise Sudos limp with KQcc in the cutoff and get 3-bet by the SB. I flop 763cc and put in one raise, hoping against hope that the SB will get tricky and give me a free card (this guy has an over pair here like always). He doesn't and leads the turn and checks when the Ace hits on the river. I don't bet, knowing he won't fold, and I get shown KK and obviously can't beat it with my king high flush draw.
So once again, thanks for listening. On the day I lost $1300, but it felt like a lot more. As usual I almost escaped with a much better number, but dribbled away a rack in my last hour of play. Today is another day, I suppose, but it's really getting tough.
Nonlinear Utility Functions and Fantasy Football
I realize my blog has been pretty negative lately, since all I've been able to come up with to write about is an endless string of horrendous beats. I was going to write about more of these beats, as I took some gruesome ones yesterday (I 3-bet bravos with AA in the small blind. The board runs out something like T84-J-9, with 3-bets going in on the flop and 2 more on the turn. On the river I ask "Do you have kings? I can beat kings" and just call to see his JJ two outter spike on the turn. At 40/80 it folded to Kobra on the button and he raised. I got tricky and just called with Kd Kc. After I 6-bet the ten-high flop with two diamonds because he was short on chips, the board came running diamonds. He raised me all in for 3 chips on the river and I of course called with the second nuts to see Ad Ac. This type of cooler is supposed to happen something like once every 50,000 hands I think), but decided instead to just give you an overview of them and flesh out a concept I thought a lot about yesterday.
Utility functions are used by economists to determine a person's utility (happiness) based on possible outcomes of a situation. In poker, the correct utility function is one that maps directly (linearly) to dollars. If you win $1 you should be 1 unit of happy. If you win $100 you should be 100 units of happy. If your personal utility function is any different than this you will be at risk for sub-optimal decision making, as you're personal happiness will be offsetting the correct mathematical decision dictated by the current pot odds situation you're facing.
And there-in lay the rub. Most people's utility functions are decidedly nonlinear when it comes to money won or lost. As a simple example, take a look at the illustration on this page, which plots utility as a function of wealth. The basic idea is that each incremental unit of wealth adds less utility (happiness), which his shown by the concave down (negative second derivative) of the graph. In more simplistic terms that are obvious once you think about it, $10,000 will increase the happiness of a homeless person a lot more than it will increase the happiness of a software developer, who in turn will have his happiness increased a lot more than a billionaire would by a gift of $10,000. This also applies to poker in terms of a single session, and is the reason that a lot of recreational players "eat like birds and shit like elephants." The average player gains a lot of utility by booking a small win in a specific game. If he sits down at 20/40 with $300 and wins $300 more, he will often pick up his chips and go home happy as a clam. He won $300 and it makes sense for him to stand up, because he is on a less steep part of the curve above. If he loses back the $300, he will incur a bigger loss of utility than what he stands to gain if he wins a second $300. Therefore, from his somewhat non-rational yet completely valid point of view, the correct strategy is to stand up. An interesting effect of this phenomenon on the other end is the ability to pass one's "threshold of pain" in the losing direction. Many player won't "quit stuck", which is where the aforementioned "shitting like an elephant" comes into play. If they are stuck, even a fairly small amount, they will continue to play in an effort to get even. Eventually they move to an area of the curve in the "loss" section (down and to the left of the part shown on my graph) that is incredibly flat. If a person is stuck $2000, losing $500 doesn't really add a whole lot of pain. It's the very same monetary catastrophe that it was when you lost the first $500, but from experience I can tell you it just doesn't sting quite as much. The correct strategy for this person is actually to keep playing (assuming he is playing in a game in which his EV is neutral), since as he loses he incurs less pain than he gains as he wins. Were this person to break even for the day, he'd be thrilled, whereas the times he turns his $2000 loss into a $4000 he only feels marginally worse.
Deal or No Deal has probably advanced public awareness about utility functions a great deal over the past few years. To anyone not familiar with the game (perhaps I have some readers in Sub-Saharan Africa), it is very simple. You start out with N cases, each of which have some money in them. The amounts of money are known, and typically range from one cent to one million dollars. You pick a case that is "yours" and save it, then open other cases a few at a time to eliminate them. After you open a few the "banker" will offer you a "deal" for a certain amount of money. You can either take the deal or open a few more cases, at which point you'll be offered a new deal. Typically the deal is a fraction of the fair value of the remaining cases expected value (for example if you have 10 cases left with a total of $1.2 million in them, you will never be offered the full $120,000 that represents your expected value). Eventually, when only two cases remain, your final deal will be offered. You can either take it or open your case and win whatever is inside. The implications of a personal utility function here are drastic. I watched a show just last week where a woman had 6 cases left with over $800,000 inside them. The fair value (expectation) of her case at that point was $133,333. She was offered $96,000 and she took it. The funny part is, I would have taken the deal too. I'm in a life situation right now where $96,000, even after taxes, would be life changing money. It would go a long way towards me getting out of this apartment and into a piece of property I could own. My utility function is very nonlinear as it progresses from the $20,000 mark to the $500,000 mark, and therefore I'd have taken the down payment and run.
So where am I going with this? Fantasy football, of course.
The utility function for the performance of your team for fantasy football is yours and yours alone. There are perhaps players out there for whom nothing short of a championship season will afford any sort of happiness whatsoever. Others will glean a good bit of utility simply from making the playoffs. I argue, however, that most fantasy football managers gain the greatest bit of utility simply from not building a team that in the end causes embarrassment. This is my utility function in a nutshell. I don't want to embarrass myself. Therefore, my goal should be to build a team that has the greatest probability of winning at least 6 games (in a 14 game season), as that is my threshold value for "not embarrassing". If you win more games that that, maybe you'll make the playoffs and that'd be fun, and if you do you could win, because we all know that fantasy football playoffs are a complete crap shoot. Here then is my fantasy football "don't draft an abomination" strategy. If you follow these simply steps, your team will win 6 games. I promise. Let us assume a 12-team league with standard rules in which you start 2 running backs, 3 wrs, and a flex each week (a "deep" league true, but fairly standard). The draft has 16 rounds. Here then, are your commandments:
1. Draft a kicker in the 16th round.
2. Draft a TE in the 15th round. Do not fall for Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, or Dallas Clark. There are tons of decent tight ends (Visanthe Shiancoe...Heath Miller...That Havner guy from Green Bay....Vernon Davis...Kellen Winslow....Jeremey Shockey.....you will end up with one of these guys. If you don't, it is because your league-mates are drafting two tight ends, in which case you will win anyway because they are idiots).
3. Draft a Defense in the 14th round.
4. For the three positions above, play the waiver wire relentlessly. Rams playing Detroit this week? Start 'em! Jacksonville's kicker playing Cleveland at home? Time to cut Lawrence Tynes! Basically use only 3 roster spots on these three positions, no matter what.
5. Don't draft a QB before the 9th round unless your league has some weirdo scoring system (like a point per completion which apparently happens in Facebook leagues) or a rule allowing you to flex a QB some number of times (like my CBS Sportsline League does). If it's one QB the whole way, take one in the 9th or 10th round and hope it works out. If you must, draft a second one in 13th round.
6. Draft the last two starting RBs on the board (or at least one of them). This year Julius Jones and Cedric Benson were available in the 7th or even 8th round of many fantasy drafts (later in "less competitive" leagues). Having these guys as your 4th and 5th running backs will basically ensure that no matter what happens, you will field a solid team with a chance to win every single week.
7. On your 16-man roster, end up with at least 5RBs and 6WRs. Keep drafting them. "No Quarterback, eh?" mocks your friend while sipping on his 4th Miller Lite while taking Heath Miller in the 8th round? Pick Ray Rice. "Still no QB?" he says next round? Take Hines Ward.
8. No handcuffs. If you have 5 starting RBs on your team, you don't need handcuffs.
Following this simple 8 point strategy, your team will never suck. No matter what. No amount of injuries can devastate you, and somebody will step up and lead to the promised land of 7 or 8 victories.
Utility functions are used by economists to determine a person's utility (happiness) based on possible outcomes of a situation. In poker, the correct utility function is one that maps directly (linearly) to dollars. If you win $1 you should be 1 unit of happy. If you win $100 you should be 100 units of happy. If your personal utility function is any different than this you will be at risk for sub-optimal decision making, as you're personal happiness will be offsetting the correct mathematical decision dictated by the current pot odds situation you're facing.
And there-in lay the rub. Most people's utility functions are decidedly nonlinear when it comes to money won or lost. As a simple example, take a look at the illustration on this page, which plots utility as a function of wealth. The basic idea is that each incremental unit of wealth adds less utility (happiness), which his shown by the concave down (negative second derivative) of the graph. In more simplistic terms that are obvious once you think about it, $10,000 will increase the happiness of a homeless person a lot more than it will increase the happiness of a software developer, who in turn will have his happiness increased a lot more than a billionaire would by a gift of $10,000. This also applies to poker in terms of a single session, and is the reason that a lot of recreational players "eat like birds and shit like elephants." The average player gains a lot of utility by booking a small win in a specific game. If he sits down at 20/40 with $300 and wins $300 more, he will often pick up his chips and go home happy as a clam. He won $300 and it makes sense for him to stand up, because he is on a less steep part of the curve above. If he loses back the $300, he will incur a bigger loss of utility than what he stands to gain if he wins a second $300. Therefore, from his somewhat non-rational yet completely valid point of view, the correct strategy is to stand up. An interesting effect of this phenomenon on the other end is the ability to pass one's "threshold of pain" in the losing direction. Many player won't "quit stuck", which is where the aforementioned "shitting like an elephant" comes into play. If they are stuck, even a fairly small amount, they will continue to play in an effort to get even. Eventually they move to an area of the curve in the "loss" section (down and to the left of the part shown on my graph) that is incredibly flat. If a person is stuck $2000, losing $500 doesn't really add a whole lot of pain. It's the very same monetary catastrophe that it was when you lost the first $500, but from experience I can tell you it just doesn't sting quite as much. The correct strategy for this person is actually to keep playing (assuming he is playing in a game in which his EV is neutral), since as he loses he incurs less pain than he gains as he wins. Were this person to break even for the day, he'd be thrilled, whereas the times he turns his $2000 loss into a $4000 he only feels marginally worse.Deal or No Deal has probably advanced public awareness about utility functions a great deal over the past few years. To anyone not familiar with the game (perhaps I have some readers in Sub-Saharan Africa), it is very simple. You start out with N cases, each of which have some money in them. The amounts of money are known, and typically range from one cent to one million dollars. You pick a case that is "yours" and save it, then open other cases a few at a time to eliminate them. After you open a few the "banker" will offer you a "deal" for a certain amount of money. You can either take the deal or open a few more cases, at which point you'll be offered a new deal. Typically the deal is a fraction of the fair value of the remaining cases expected value (for example if you have 10 cases left with a total of $1.2 million in them, you will never be offered the full $120,000 that represents your expected value). Eventually, when only two cases remain, your final deal will be offered. You can either take it or open your case and win whatever is inside. The implications of a personal utility function here are drastic. I watched a show just last week where a woman had 6 cases left with over $800,000 inside them. The fair value (expectation) of her case at that point was $133,333. She was offered $96,000 and she took it. The funny part is, I would have taken the deal too. I'm in a life situation right now where $96,000, even after taxes, would be life changing money. It would go a long way towards me getting out of this apartment and into a piece of property I could own. My utility function is very nonlinear as it progresses from the $20,000 mark to the $500,000 mark, and therefore I'd have taken the down payment and run.
So where am I going with this? Fantasy football, of course.
The utility function for the performance of your team for fantasy football is yours and yours alone. There are perhaps players out there for whom nothing short of a championship season will afford any sort of happiness whatsoever. Others will glean a good bit of utility simply from making the playoffs. I argue, however, that most fantasy football managers gain the greatest bit of utility simply from not building a team that in the end causes embarrassment. This is my utility function in a nutshell. I don't want to embarrass myself. Therefore, my goal should be to build a team that has the greatest probability of winning at least 6 games (in a 14 game season), as that is my threshold value for "not embarrassing". If you win more games that that, maybe you'll make the playoffs and that'd be fun, and if you do you could win, because we all know that fantasy football playoffs are a complete crap shoot. Here then is my fantasy football "don't draft an abomination" strategy. If you follow these simply steps, your team will win 6 games. I promise. Let us assume a 12-team league with standard rules in which you start 2 running backs, 3 wrs, and a flex each week (a "deep" league true, but fairly standard). The draft has 16 rounds. Here then, are your commandments:
1. Draft a kicker in the 16th round.
2. Draft a TE in the 15th round. Do not fall for Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, or Dallas Clark. There are tons of decent tight ends (Visanthe Shiancoe...Heath Miller...That Havner guy from Green Bay....Vernon Davis...Kellen Winslow....Jeremey Shockey.....you will end up with one of these guys. If you don't, it is because your league-mates are drafting two tight ends, in which case you will win anyway because they are idiots).
3. Draft a Defense in the 14th round.
4. For the three positions above, play the waiver wire relentlessly. Rams playing Detroit this week? Start 'em! Jacksonville's kicker playing Cleveland at home? Time to cut Lawrence Tynes! Basically use only 3 roster spots on these three positions, no matter what.
5. Don't draft a QB before the 9th round unless your league has some weirdo scoring system (like a point per completion which apparently happens in Facebook leagues) or a rule allowing you to flex a QB some number of times (like my CBS Sportsline League does). If it's one QB the whole way, take one in the 9th or 10th round and hope it works out. If you must, draft a second one in 13th round.
6. Draft the last two starting RBs on the board (or at least one of them). This year Julius Jones and Cedric Benson were available in the 7th or even 8th round of many fantasy drafts (later in "less competitive" leagues). Having these guys as your 4th and 5th running backs will basically ensure that no matter what happens, you will field a solid team with a chance to win every single week.
7. On your 16-man roster, end up with at least 5RBs and 6WRs. Keep drafting them. "No Quarterback, eh?" mocks your friend while sipping on his 4th Miller Lite while taking Heath Miller in the 8th round? Pick Ray Rice. "Still no QB?" he says next round? Take Hines Ward.
8. No handcuffs. If you have 5 starting RBs on your team, you don't need handcuffs.
Following this simple 8 point strategy, your team will never suck. No matter what. No amount of injuries can devastate you, and somebody will step up and lead to the promised land of 7 or 8 victories.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
