Monday, March 25, 2013

For Great Justice

My game has fallen to crap, but for some reason (convenience, mostly) I've decided to wait it out.  It'll get better before it gets worse (it can't get worse), and besides honestly it's just bad by local standards.  Objectively it's still just fine.  To wit....

UTG limps, and card runners man raises his HJ post.  40 month winning streak elects to cold call in the cutoff (for serious...how awful is that?  We're talking about card runner's man raising a post.  And on top of that his range is very easy to figure out), the button and small blind fold and I 3 bet the AJss.  They all call and we flop

J96r

I fire, UTG peels, card runners calls, 40 month's now raises, I 3-bet, UTG folds, card runners calls two cold (he's never seen two bets he didn't want to call cold on the flop) and Mr. 40 month's puts the lid on it.  I call and start thinking about what he has and how it's probably some sort of draw or combo hand but then realize there is no flush draw, exactly two open enders, 87 and QT, and (I think) zero pair + straight draw hands.  So basically I'm putting him on exact 8 combos of 87s and QTs and trying to decide if my read is strong enough to "donk" the turn because I mean...what else can he have?  He's probably not even raising the flop once with less than a jack, and he's certainly not capping without a monster, so unless he has something just bizarre (AA, 66) that should be ruled out from preflop (and that he'd likely wait to raise the turn with), he pretty much has one of those hands, right?  But the turn doesn't help my cause.

J96-5

Well half his reasonable range just made the nuts, so I check.  Card runner's checks and of course he checks it back.  So now it occurs to me that he could have been doing the old "where am I at" raise with a weaker jack, then upon learning the answer was "way the fuck behind" trying the old "cap for a cheap showdown" play.  This irritates me because I knew he had bullshit and I'm upset I got a turn card that I had to let his bullshit take a free river with.  So we see the river 3 ways.

J96-5-7

On the surface that looks like a very scary card, but who's supposed to have fucking anything here?  Card runners didn't have a pair on the flop (he'd have raised it) so unless he somehow has exactly 75 I should be OK.  I mean sure there is stuff he can have I guess, but J8 98, 86, A8...none of them make any sense.  Even he'd fold the A8 for two more bets.  He's supposed to just have something sorta straightening, like the KT, KQ, etc.....And Mr. 40 months?  He checked back the turn, so he can't have the 87, and he four bet the flop so he really can't have the 98 (just raising the flop makes that unlikely) and of course 88 is absurd and well at this point it's pretty much a weaker jack or the QT.   So what do I do?

Value bet lol

Card runner's snap folds (so yeah he had a million outs with like some overs and a gutterball or some such) and Mr. 40 months...RAISES!  Seriously, he raises.  All that analysis (which I hadn't really done completely at the time...all I had so far was "jeeze he doesn't have anything" running through my brain) and he just raises it up in a huge pot on the river and I have the naked one pair stone cold bottom of my range hand and well I stand up and look at it and just can't see how he can have the 8 other than just a full scale abortion of the J8s so I call and he shows me...QTs.  And I feel like a champion.

4 comments:

Private Joker said...

J96r... but then realize there is no flush draw, exactly two open enders, 87 and QT

What about T8?

Jesse Smithnosky said...

See, I'm not very good at this sort of thing.

DontRunForThat said...

Imagine this sort of shit where instead of getting 12321/1 your getting 2/1 :)

Jesse Smithnosky said...

Yeah for that sort of work it'd be advisable to actually be able to read the board.