Saturday, March 19, 2011

General Update

First of all, I can't believe I used the wrong word in my last post; of course it's not reciprocity. That's a 100% completely real word that means 100% completely something different. But the point of the post still stands.

Things are actually going quite well as it turns out. I ran quite hot last week playing live (although I'm not going to get in my 50 hour week as I'd hoped because I had to make an early quit yesterday after losing 40 bets in the first 2 hours of my session....A regular old time grinder in my game was extremely impressed that I was capable of such a quit), and haven't really been able to lose a showdown online since I entered the well. I'm looking at all my results so far for the first time in a while, and it looks like for the year I've won/earned something like $17K. Just a shade under two thirds of that is actual live winnings, with the remaining third coming from my shady on the down low propping situation, winning online, and collecting rake back and bonuses. Now honestly $6K a month is....OK. So I guess I'm happy.

I still need to make a decision if I'm going to release some investment funds in order to take the 40 shot. I had sworn to myself when I got my liquid cash number up to $30K I would just go for it. Now that I'm basically at that number (I may have been across it before I blew up on Friday) I'm sort of finding reasons not to (just like Bellatrix said I was, either on here or DC or 2p2 or some such, which I refuted for some reason even though it's completely true). The truth of the matter is that I'm scared. I know that taking a shot at that game could be the end of this little endeavor; or worse, I could take my shot with 10 racks or whatever, lose them in a week, and be right back where I started, continuing to waste my time and life doing something that isn't going to get me anywhere special. And things have been going so well with me just doing what I'm doing that I'm hesitant break the pattern, which is weird because another way of looking at it is that I should take the 40 shot when things have been going well and my confidence is high. So...I dunno.

Long story short though, 2011 is going an awful lot better than 2010 did.


The blindman said...

Why not take a thin shot with 50BB or so? If you are a 1BB/hr winner in the 40, your RoR should be < 50% even with such a tiny roll. If your winrate is 0.5, RoR might be 65%, but a 35% chance of becoming a reg in the 40 is worth it, isn't it?

Doug Lonsinger said...

I'm with blindman. Take a small about of money to invest in the shot. Become a 20 player who plays the 40 when it looks really good. Avoid being exactly one or the other limit player, and even when you're established in the 40 be willing to play lower to avoid a bad lineup. The value of sticking is very high, assuming you don't do too much damage to your roll at the 20.

that_pope said...

I agree with both points. I think DougL has a great point that a lot of people have trouble with. That is ego and calling yourself a X player. I am a 40 player, so I can't sit in 20 if a 40 is going. This is just horrible especially if you aren't the best player at the table.