Wednesday, June 30, 2010

What Does He Have?

I played this hand online today and think it presents a fairly interesting puzzle. Villain seems to be a fish over 100 hands (something like 50 vpip, 10 pfr) and my notes on him do nothing to dissuade me from this belief. Note that he is posted into the hand in the CO. And the kicker....I believe he may have made a defensible, if not downright correct, play on every street. So have at it, win the respect of the tens of dozens of people who read this blog!

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By

CO posts a big blind (1 SB)

Pre Flop: (3 SB) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (7 SB) Q A K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps!, Hero calls

Turn: (7.5 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (9.5 BB) K (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls


Stay@Home-Tom said...


NL Holdem Micro player, but I had to show some love

Yodaman said...


Andrew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andrew said...

Apparently I suck at editing.

If his play is defensible on all streets, it seems unlikely that he should be raising the river with less than a boat since you have been constantly repping 2pair+ from flop onward. JT does not seem a possibility given the flop cap followed by the turn flat.

So what boats+ can he have?
AA and KK are right out given PF.
AK is likely eliminated given PF.
66 is clearly not possible.

I think his most likely hand here is KQ (2 combos remaining...) followed by Ks6s. KJs/KTs are better off flatting the river since he only pulled ahead of AQ. K6/KQ on the other hand just pulled ahead of JT, AQ, and QQ and are strong enough to raise. I don't want to crunch the numbers though..

Long winded way of basically saying what yodaman said.

GCP said...

K6 of spades.

Captain R said...


I suspect he has KQ or K6ss as people have said, but KQ should have 3-bet preflop and unless you raise JTs UTG, he shouldn't raise the river with K6s.

3 combos of AA
6 combos of AK
6 combos of KQ


3 combos of QQ

If you open JTs UTG, then its a slight loser, 15 vs. 7.

If you 3-bet/lead turn with AJ- on the flop or open JTo preflop, then yeah...

Ken said...


jesse8888 said...

Long story short K6ss is correct. KQ should 3-bet preflop I think, but admittedly K6s could be argued to a fold.

I won't discuss my UTG opening range but Captain has an excellent point that unless it's quite wide the river raise is questionable.

Yodaman said...

I don't think K6ss played the flop right at all. The cap looks to be spewing a small bet when he could just see the turn for cheaper, unless he thinks you might go for some fancy turn c/r in which he checks behind. You clearly like your hand and he needs to improve, though he has a ton of outs.

Andrew said...

I think the combos listed for raising Ks6s on the river are wrong:

AA: 3 combos
KQ: 3 combos
AK: 3 combos

If Jesse is opening JTs utg, then it's 9 combos vs. 7 combos and a clear value raise (not a marginal loser) especially if the Ks6s can ever find a raise-fold when 3bet on the river.

Jesse, are you always checking AQ on this river? If not (i.e. 2 out of 9 times or more), then at least some of the 9 available combos would be betting and even if you're opening really tight UTG, a raise on the river with Ks6s is in order.

Andrew said...

Although if you bet-fold AQ whenever you bet it, it swings back the other way...