2011 Results

So right now I'm waiting for the Steelers playoff game to start, or more accurately I'm waiting to start watching it so I won't have to deal with the commercials during the game. Kind of irritating, but I just don't enjoy watching games with commercials anymore. I'm spoiled. Anyway, here we go....I've got a couple of conflicting issues here regarding posting my results. I know a lot of people want to see them, and I know that a large part of the reason my blog has been so successful is that I've been very open and honest during this entire 3.5 year experience. So I am going to report some numbers, but will hopefully end up leaving a little bit to the imagination.

The first thing that becomes apparent when looking at my results is that I need to play as much 40 as possible and start treating 20/40 games as merely something to do while waiting to get into larger ones. It was a pretty big surprise to me, but I actually played more hours below 40/80 than I did at or above it for the year (counting some 15/30 and 25/50 from the Bike and Hustler, and the 30 game at HG). If I were to have guessed, I'd have said 65% of my hours were 40/80 (or higher, although that's a very small number), and to be frank I'd have been WAY off. I kind of forgot that I didn't really play much 40 the first 3 months of the year, and even up through Halloween I was routinely logging 4 hours of OT 20/40, opting out of the tougher prop filled 40 games I had access to. So there is that, which is a little surprising. Then there are the total numbers, which are striking; I won more bets per hour in the 40 (and above) than I did in smaller games. And it wasn't particularly close. What are the reasons for that? Well, some of it could be run good/run bad. Some of it could be game selection (a lot of my 20 hours weren't played because I was in an amazing game, but rather because the 40 games I had access to simply weren't that great). And some of it could, sadly, be tending to play 40/80 earlier in the day (when I'm fresh) and grinding out longer 20 sessions at night (when I'm tired and likely making mistakes). The net effect is that while I spent over half my time playing "smaller" games, bigger games produced over 3/4ths of my profit for the year. So what does this mean? No more 20/40.

For the total year I won .65 bets per hour across all LHE games. The number creeps up to .72 if you remove "very small" games (anything below 20/40, which basically includes some horrendous results in the bike 15/30 that no longer exists, and also dusting off a rack or so in various 8/16 games for almost no reason at all). Given the volume I put in and the utter lack of table selection that most of my life entails, I am thrilled with this result. On top of all that, I was able to take home wages and rewards cards dollars averaging over $2500/month. So in short, the year was a raging success, despite finishing December with the worst down swing of my entire life.

If you have any questions about my results, please feel free to post a comment here or contact me via some other messaging format. I'm always happy to share. But for now, it's time to watch the first ever nationally televised Jesus-Ectomy.

Go Billy Go!

So last weekend in Scottsdale I found myself at a bar called Eli's, watching four beautiful flat screen TVs at once showing the four interesting AFC matchups that were currently running. Actually I got there an hour early and watched the end of the Lions Packers "game", which was amazing but also just a complete boondogle if you looked at it the right way. Anyway, I've got myself set up at the bar with the Steelers Browns up and to the left and Ravens Bungles up and to the right, and the reason for this was pretty simple; if the Ravens beat the Bungles, the Steelers game was meaningless. So in a way, THAT game was actually more important to me than the actual Steelers game (this fact was augmented by the fact that the Browns are 4-29 against the Steelers since 1994....go ahead, read that again. FOUR AND TWENTY NINE SINCE NINETEEN NINETY FOUR). Well I learned something, something that I probably already knew but had forgotten several times; there is nothing more frustrating that rooting for a shitty team that you have no respect for. Nothing. And that's exactly what I was forced to do, somehow find it in myself to root for the Bungles to pull off a monstrous upset of the Ravens.

It was not a fair match, a fact that became quite clear midway through the 2nd quarter when I turned to Danielle and said "I feel like I'm standing by watching my little brother take on the school bully. I'm really rooting for him, but I know I can't go in there and help him because he needs to learn to stand up for himself. Go little Billy, you can do it!" And that's literally the way I felt for the entire second half, just complete and utter disdain at having to rely on the fucking Bengals to somehow someway steel a game from the Ravens. And of course they couldn't do it. You know why? They're the fucking Bengals, that's why. They're an awful franchise, with a bad front office, a functionally retarded coach (more on that later, but his first challenge in today's playoff game was perhaps the worst use of the red flag I have ever seen), and a roster full of under-performing criminals. So they lose because they are terrible and I'm forced to wince as phase 2 of my "Steelers lose in Foxboro in week 2" prediction comes to fruition. The Broncos can't score a touchdown and go down in flames, except wait Oakland can't win either! Somebody has to win the AFC West, right? Right? Are you sure? We have to let one of these teams in the playoffs? OK, send in the Tebows, everyone will find that interesting.

So fast forward to today...Danielle and I spent pretty much 5.5 straight hours watching the two games, and I again was put in the position of being forced to root for the Cincinnati Billies. Why, you ask? Two reasons, really. First of all if they won they'd have to go to Foxboro next week, and the Steelers (assuming the business of beating Tim Tebow senseless is properly handled) would play Baltimore. To me that is basically a free roll. If the Steelers don't play the Ravens and instead get blitzkreiged in Foxboro, then the Ravens will have won the season against them. But if they could ride into Baltimore and knock the Crows out, that would effectively be like the punching the bully in the gut and taking back the lunch money; the previous beatings would go away. Remember, I have zero belief that the Steelers can beat the Pats in the playoffs; zero. It just can't happen, not so long as Mr. Uggs and Bellicheat are stalking around over there getting shit done. My second reason is actually a bit more logical; if the Billies somehow could win TWO games, and the Steelers ALSO won two games, the AFC title game would be held in Pittsburgh. Pipe dream? Sure. But who wants to root for a team from Texas?

So anyway I spent the entire game rooting on the little Billies, and boy oh boy did they shit the bed with gusto. The stat I heard before the game should have been all you needed to know regarding where to put your money on this game. The Bengals finished with a mark of 9-7, but lost ALL SEVEN GAMES they played against playoff teams. That's right, nine and oh against the chumps, oh fer seven against teams that actually had their shit together. Denver, San Francisco, Houston, Baltimore, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh...all losses. There was just no way Billy could pull this thing off. And it didn't take Marvin Lewis but 15 minutes to see to exactly that. Midway through the first quarter he decided to challenge the spot of the ball (which is a notoriously stupid idea) to try to turn a 3rd and 1 foot into a first down. Think about that. The current situation is that you have the ball, 3rd and 1 foot, somewhere around mid-field, and you decide that what you should do is throw the red flag to try to change the spot of the ball such that you get a first down. If you win, it will be first and ten. The ball will not change hands (for crying out loud it will only move a foot), and the scoreboard will remain the same. And that's if you win! If you lose you'll assure yourself of only having 1 more challenge the rest of the game (you only get 2, unless you win them both, in which case you get a third), and you'll lose a timeout. So of course they lose the challenge (if I were the ref I'd have called it that way just for pure spite) because guess what? The spot was basically right, which was clearly evident on the replay. So then what happened? Andy Dalton ran a QB sneak and converted the 3rd and 1 to...1st and ten. Worst challenge I ever saw.....

And the Billies did all sorts of other stupid stuff, most of which I can't even remember now because we then watched the entire Saints game, in which they mercilessly slaughtered Danielle's version of the Billies; Detroit. That game was kind of a fake out. If you just looked at the scoreboard at half time you would have thought it was a close one. But the stats were mind boggling. Brees was something like 16 of 18 for 175, and they had 120 yards rushing. They only reason the game wasn't over was that they kept fumbling. So what happened? The saints came out and scored touchdowns on 5 straight drives in the second half, only stopping to kneel down with 2 minutes to go with the ball on the Detroit 2. Brees threw for like 900 yards, and Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles also had stupendous games. The only thing I really learned from the game was that the Saints defense is even worse than I thought; anytime you manage to give up 28 points in a game where you offense DOES NOT PUNT you're simply not good. Danielle spent the game rooting for Detroit, and realized midway through the third quarter that rooting for Billy just wasn't that much fun.

How Does This Happen

In just two short days I've gone from extremely well rested and chomping at the bit to play poker, to extremely fatigued, unable to sleep, and really having no interest in going in to work today. I guess it could be because I was out of the house for 15 and 13 hours respectively each of the last two days, and perhaps because the landscapers showed up at 7 this morning, but in general I'm just not super happy about it. And over the last two days I was actually able to feel my play degrading and slipping for the first time in a while, until last night around 7pm I was playing my usual "not that good" game and bailed. Here are some examples:

Hand 1, 20/40

Fishy limps, old school tag raises, a cold-call, I call in the blind with the mighty 74o, we see a flop of:

K63r

I check, fishy checks, old school bets, a fold and I...Raise! Fishy folds, tag folds, I pat myself on the back for a job well done. The play took awareness (fishy wasn't that interested) and cognition (old school will bet/fold a huge portion of his range on this board, giving me credit for exactly a king). Yah.

Hand 2, 40/80

Bad player limps, I raise, tag-fish calls, button calls, 4 ways. I have kings by the way.

932dd

Bad player donks, I raise, tag-fish snap calls, button calls, donker calls, I cringe. Tag-fish pretty much has a set of 3s or 2s here always, as I think he'd 3-bet a flush draw. There is a chance he has pocket tens, however, so I must bet/fold the turn to make sure.

Jr

I bet, tag fish raises, button calls, bad player folds, I fold. The river is a card and tag-fish shows the 333. This play isn't extremely difficult or anything, but it does qualify as a hero fold that, when playing poorly, I am unable to make. Like here...

Hand 3 40/80

Lady who just crushes me opens UTG but like 6 handed, I defend the QJcc

A44cc

I c/r which is probably bad in and of itself right from the start. She calls. I cringe and try to figure out what to do when:

Qr

Seems like I still have a value bet, right? Fail. There is no value, whatsoever. She will play perfectly against my bet, and the only hands I even remotely want folding are gut shots which I'd imagine she'd have snap folded on the flop. I suppose I beat QT, but again, I don't think that's even getting here. Anyway, I value bet.

Jr

I check/call like a fish, see the A6o, rack up and go home.

Seeing my play deteriorate like that was a little disheartening, to be blunt. I like to believe that I am capable of playing well for an entire day, but it's possible I've been lying to myself all this time. And tonight's horrible sleep definitely isn't going to help, so I guess the plan for today is just to take it one hour at a time, take lots of breaks, and try not to fight too dirty against my money.

The Run Good Continues

So that Commerce game got pretty mediocre after I'd played or two hours and won 20 bets, so I picked up and headed to work. Within 15 minutes of arriving the prop supervisor found with good news; I won a prize at the Christmas party! I went to HR to collect it ($325 spread over a dozen gift cards), then headed to the floor to start a 20. We finally spread the cards and I snap draw the ace of spades to win the button before anyone else even knows what happened.

Happy New Year to Me!

So I walk into Commerce at 7:02am with 9.5 hours of sleep under my belt (lol who says you can't goto bed at 8pm) and it does not look good. Upon immediate inspection there is one 20 with a list, one 40 with no list and no 60. I walk towards the lone wolf floor man and as I'm passing the 40 the 500 pound man in seat 8 literally throw his cards over the 5 and 3 seats' heads. His tirade is all the standard stuff, f this f that runner runner all the days etc etc etc.

Me: "I think you have a seat"
Floor: "You want this purple chair? It's well broken in"
Me: "Naw, just two racks"

Fatty was supposed to be on the button, so it slides one extra seat and I post behind as the 4th blind 90 seconds after walking onto the floor. Happy New Year to Me!