Saturday, February 7, 2009

Why This Game is Beatable

Two hands from yesterday can illustrate specifically why this game is beatable.

Hand 1:

Two players limp and I raise 77 in the small blind. Most players would not raise in this spot, but doing so has huge advantages over calling:

1. You have an equity advantage over the ranges of the limpers. Specifically, it is very unlikely that either of them has a pair larger than your sevens, since they declined to raise.

2. You could fold out the big blind, who probably has 1 and maybe has 2 over cards to your pair. This puts dead money in the pot, which is always nice.

3. You take control of the hand. Even when playing WOOPs (Way Out Of Position), being in the betting lead usually makes things easier.

4. Everyone assumes you have a monster, because to raise the small blind, they'd need a monster. In short, you're going to get more folds this way, even though the pot is bigger, which is backwards.

Back to the hand....the big blind and both limpers call, so we see the flop 4 ways for 8 small bets:

643 with two hearts (I have the 7 of hearts)

This is about as good as it gets without flopping a set. I bet (as I would virtually always here, unless the flop had 3 broadway cards or something), and the big blind raises. The limpers fold, and I 3-bet. So far I figure he has something like a 6, a pair and a straight draw, or even a heart draw or just two naked overs. In short, I'm still way ahead. Then he caps. I go into my memory banks and come up empty; I basically don't know this guy. Ok, I call. Most likely he's got something pretty good here. We're now heads up, for 8 big bets (suddenly a large pot).

643-2 with still just two hearts

Now that's a very bad card for obvious reasons. A 5 was a very large part of his range and it just got there. I check, he bets, and I think for a minute. The pot is laying me 5:1 on a calldown (there are 9 bets, 10 if he bets the river, and I have to put in 2 to see the show down). He could still be making some weird sort of play here, and I have an overpair and a gutshot. I elect to grit my teeth and call down.

643-2-4 and the hearts don't come in

I check and call. He sheepishly says "you win" and rolls A3o for two pair, 4s and 3s. I roll my hand and drag the 480 dollar pot.

What did my opponent do wrong here? Yeesh, where to begin. First of all, even playing A3o from the big blind when the small blind raises is a horrible idea. You're dominated by practically my entire range (by basically any pair and any ace, which is a huge portion of what I'm raising), and to boot you have terrible post flop position (2nd to act of 4, and first to act after the player who's in the betting lead). Without expert post flop play, and perhaps even with it, this hand is surely a loser.

Next...on the flop you have basically a bluff catcher. Admittedly getting 9:1 on the flop it'd be hard/bad to lay this down, but here comes our old friend position. Are you really getting 9:1? What if one of the limpers raises? What if I then 3-bet? Things are not always what they seem. He elects to raise, which honestly might be the best play, so kudos for him. He clears out the limpers and if I do in fact have Ace-High he's setting himself up to take down the pot on the turn. Then....

I 3-bet. I basically put my hand faceup on the table and declare "I can beat a pair of 6s". My opponent is undeterred, and elects to cap. With a strong draw, such as 65 (for top pair and an open ended straight draw) or maybe something like T8 of hearts (two overs and a heart draw), this would make sense. It's pretty clear now that I'm not folding, but with a cap here he can elect to see the river for free most of the time. This isn't what he's doing....at this point, he's left the reservation. I call.

The turn is a scary card, making any hand holding a 5 the virtual nuts (75 is the actual nuts). Perhaps this changed my opponents mind, and convinced him to try to bet once more. If that's the case, then again good for him; he adapted during the hand when a scary card fell and took one more shot at a swollen heads up pot. I have the feeling, however, that he "Put me on Ace King" and decided to just go batshit. When he bets, I think for a second for calling, which may have convinced him I was weak (although the flop action basically puts a cap on how "weak" I can actually be). I do in fact have practically the worst hand I can possibly have, and part of what I was thinking about was the fact that he should know this....he should know 77 is about as bad of a "made" hand as I can have. So if he's betting, he should be able to beat it most of the time. I call.

At this point, the hand should be over from his point of view. My turn call commits me to showdown. There are now 10 big bets in the pot, and on the river if he bets I'm going to be getting 11:1 on my money to see what he has and possibly drag the pot. His pair of 3s is a bluff catcher now. If I check the river, I will call him with everything that beats him (pairs) and fold everything that doesn't (ace high....busted flush draws...etc). The river 4 is basically inconsequential (although it does actually pull me ahead of a couple of two pair hands that aren't out of the question for him to be holding). He stabs one last time, undoubtedly having no idea why he's betting. Does he think I'll call with a worse hand? No. Does he think I'll fold a better one? No. He simply thinks "I have the best hand he has Ace King I bet" and bets. I call, and he looks like an idiot after spewing off 4 big bets pots flop with a pair of 3s.

Hand 2:

Again I'm in the small blind, and this time about 4 players limp. I raise KJ of diamonds, mainly because it rates to have a large equity advantage over the ranges of the limpers. Everybody calls, and lets say it's 6 handed for 12 small bets:

T44 with two diamonds.

A fantastic flop again. I have two overs, a second nut flush draw, and a back door straight draw. Unless somebody has a 4, I am a prohibitive favorite in this hand 6 ways (meaning I probably have something like 50% equity). I bet, and 3 players call.

T44-Q, now two hearts and two diamonds

I bet, one player folds, the worst player at the table says "I don't know what I have yet" and I believe him (he's been playing hands blind) and checks his cards. "Wow, I have a Queen!" he says. I tend to believe him, as he's really that bad. Now a late position player raises.....

I say to him "found a heart draw eh?" and he looks away. I'm never folding here and call him pretty quickly, as I have 15 outs to a monster (I have an open ended straight draw and still a flush draw). I note that he actually might have that heart draw, since he did look away. The crazy fish folds his hand, showing it to the other half of the table. There is general disbelief, as this guy takes most of his hands to show down. He actually had a queen.

T44-Q-6 of spades. I have made squadush.

I check. My opponent quickly checks behind and I announce "King High". My opponent looks ill as I table my hand. He courtesy shows J9 of hearts, for basically the same draw I had (flush draw, open ended straight draw). The table erupts in general amazement. Not only did I raise KJ from the small blind, but the calling station mega-fish threw away top pair on the turn after playing the hand blind and my opponent forgot to follow through on his bluff because he didn't take the size of the pot into consideration.

Let's review....

My opponent's call with J9s from late position preflop is completely sane.

His call on the flop, getting 15:1 closing the action is not great, but honestly isn't awful, either. He has two back door draws, which are worth about 3 outs, which on the surface makes a call seem break even. However, the board is already paired and another flush draw is present. These two things substantially weaken his chances, as he can make one of his hands and still lose a good percentage of the time.

On the turn the pot has gotten big again...8 big bets specifically. I fire the 9th into the pot, and the blind fish puts in the 10th. This pot is "protected" at this point by the fish, who just announced he has a Queen (top pair). My opponent elects to raise anyway, with Jack-high. This is terrible, not because it can't get me off the hand, but because the fish is going to show down basically any pair (this fish was playing 95% of his hands and was the reason I was in the game). I call him, which is bad, but then he gets a gift from the gods. The fish folds!!! "Sweet mercy I can win this pot" should be all he's thinking. "This 13 bet pot in which I hold Jack High is mine for the taking!" The river bricks off and I check....and he checks it right back. Perhaps the check is defensible, but honestly were he planning to check in that situation the turn raise is ridiculous. This is one of those situations in limit where you either need to call one bet and fold when you miss, or put in the full 3 to try to a fold. He did neither, and simply managed to transfer a huge pot from the fish to me, for which I was quite greatful :)

Weekly Goals Update

This week went pretty well:

Days played: 5/7
Hours played: 36.25
Hours per day: 7.25
40/80 hours: 2
30/60 hours: 0
Amount won: 1700
Amount lost in 40/80: 1300
Trips to the gym: 2.5

With the exception of time spent and results achieved above 20/40, I think I did pretty well. Yesterday I spent 90 minutes in the softest 40/80 game I've seen in weeks (with the possible exception of the other 40/80 table that was running at the same time) and lost $1500 by basically getting cold-decked (as an example...when you have AJs and the other guy has QQ in a 6 handed pot, a Jack-high flop is not the one you want. When you have KQs and he has AQo and you're in the betting lead, a Queen on the turn is in fact not the card you want to see).

Yesterday was a marathon, as I was playing at Bay 101 from 11:15 until almost 10pm. For the second time this week I ripped a big loss from the jaws of a massive one, turning a $3000 downer into a $1300 one. It's amazing how good I feel driving home after doing that, perhaps even better than had I simply won $1700 and been done with it.

Tomorrow I set my sites on the Neal game at Bay 101. Today is a day of rest, while I try to get over the cold Chris flew over from DC.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Are You Ready For a War?!

While trying to decide what to title this post, I came up with a lot of ideas. There's the one I went with, which is from Braveheart where Mel Gibson gives one of his pep talks. I could have gone with "Bad things, man...Bad things", which comes from one of the funniest commercial series of all time. Ok really I just wanted to link to that....anyway....

Yesterday was a pretty bad day. I bought in for a record amount (8 racks...that's $4000), and towards the end found myself sitting at a table with a bunch of regulars, including Yodaman, JS, Bolly, and Tom B. At this point I was stuck 5 racks through a parade of 2 outters, missed flush draws, and general awfulness, but was determined to win some of my money back (and play until after traffic ended). As is usually the case, JS decided to through out the "Round of Live Straddles" idea. For those unfamiliar with the live straddle, it works like this....You post a double big blind on your under the gun hand (when you are immediately to the left of the big blind), which acts as a blind raise with one caveat....You get to act last on the preflop betting round. This is obviously a horrible thing to do unless you hate money, but if the entire table agrees to one round it can be a fun way to liven up the game.

So anyway, JS is talking to everyone and for once it actually looks like there is hope (I've never been at a table where this has actually happened....Pete was once, and so was one other friend of mine). JS talks to everyone and says "Does anyone object?" and basically nobody says anything and almost all of us say "Yeah sure, one round would be fun". So Yodaman starts it, and JS promptly flops a set of kings and wins like $300 from Bolly. Then Bolly straddles it and nothing interesting happens. Then it's my turn, and I post up my $40 and behold the 9 and the 7 offsuit before my now non-virgin staddling eyes. Of course it gets capped (strategically speaking, a straddle basically acts as a huge blind, which makes people try to raise even more preflop) and I call the two more bets, flop nothing, and fold, losing $80 that I would not have lost.

While the hand is playing out, Tom B (whom I think I've written about before) gets up and walks to the chip station for racks. He brings them back, and suddenly the table realizes he is leaving (it will be his turn to straddle in 3 more hands). Immediately there is concern. JS is like "But Tom, you agreed" and he's like "No I didn't" and it's obvious that he's just being a fucking prick. JS tries to reason with him, but to no avail. At this point the guy on my left, whom I've only seen like twice, decides that since Tom is leaving, he's not going to straddle. I am stunned and furious. I tell him "Oh come on, we can still do it" but no dice.

So now I turn to Tom and say "Tom, are you sure you want to do this?" The off-duty floorman looks at me knowingly from his position on the rail. Tom basically says nothing. "Tom, really are you sure you want to do this? There are 6 people at this table who aren't going to be very happy about this." You see, Tom had chosen a particularly bad group of people to piss off. Between me, Yodaman, and JS alone he had probably 80 hours a week of 20/40 player to worry about. Tom says he has to go.

The time has come to declare war.

"Tom, you really should stay. I'm going to sit on your left for the next month." This is out of bounds; tapping the glass at this level is something you should never, ever do. Tom looks at me confused. "Well alright then, Tom. I'm here every day. See you tomorrow." Tom leaves, I table change and win back 1300 of the 2600 I'm stuck over the next 90 minutes.

Fast forward to today....

I wake up nice and early and get myself to Bay 101 at 9:45. Tom B and I get seats back to back at the same 20/40 table. I instantly put my name on the seat change list and within 30 minutes managed to change to his immediately left. The Gods are with me today, as in the 30 minutes it took me to get situated in the jesus seat I've already flopped top set and top two pair against Tom, bludgeoning him mercilessly. On the third hand in a row that I've raised him preflop (twice just to two bets when he limped, but this time to 3 bets after he'd raised), I declare "All day, Tom. All...Freakin....Day". Sadly I lose this hand, but whatever. From the Jesus seat the money starts to pour in, and Tom has already bought a 2nd rack of chips. It folds to him on the button and he raises. I 3-bet AQdd and he calls. The flop is 3 diamonds and I bet/3-bet him. He calls the turn, but on the river the board reads something like:

89J-2-Q

And he raises my bet. I 3-bet him before he knows what happened and he calls saying "flush good". I respond "nut" and table my hand while fast grabbing my chips (not his...don't ever fast grab your opponents chips, even if you truly do hate them). At this point I comment to Pete via text message the "visceral hate is apparently good for focus and run like jesusing".

Over the course of the next 3 hours Tom and I change seats 3 times a piece. Each time he changes to get to my left, I change to the next available seat to get on his left. Each time he changes, I scratch his name off the seat change list (something that technically you're supposed to do, but nobody ever really does). I run like jesus the whole time, eventually accumulating a stack of $3300. I am forced to keep this stack in an unconventional formation, however, due to the need to keep moving it around the table. This further irks the table, as I now have ten towers stacked over 60 chips tall that I can barely see over to look at my cards. I don't really care.

Eventually Tom B disappears for two orbits, and when he comes back he talks to Sophorna (the floor lady) and moves to the 40/80 game. I half-shout over to Sophorna to put me up for 40. She says "Seat open" and I say "Lock it up!". Tom B can hardly believe his eyes. 4 hands later I'm unsheathing my chips at the 40 table and say to Tom "A promise is a promise". I watch Tom blow through another rack at the 40 game (at this level, a rack is $1000) before it eventually converts back down to a 20/40 table since there aren't enough players.

At 4:10pm, I leave after 6 hours of play, up a comfortable $1500 for the day, content that I won the war. To quote a very wise man...."You don't fuck with the Jesus!" (Ok, I just wanted to post that too).

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Mr. 18 Racks is Back!

Last week I had the pleasure of sitting on the left of a man who had the most chips I have ever seen on a poker table (and the most money I've ever seen on a 20/40 table). When he colored up to 500 dollar chips, he had about $6600 (13+ racks). At his peak he had the 12 purples, plus about $3000 more, for a total of around $9000, or 18 racks. I texted this information to my friends who demanded pictures of the 18 racks....I didn't take any, because as I said, he colored 12 of them up. Anyway, this guy was awfully bad, at least preflop. Post flop he was somewhat logical, but tended to call down too much and show aggression when he was obviously beat. Today, while working out at Oracle, I got a text from Hank informing me that "Mr 18 Racks is Back. Of course I have him on my right".

It should be noted that in general I assume that anyone who is sitting at a table with more than about 6 racks has either been playing too long, plays way too many hands, or both. It's pretty reliable.

I arrived at Bay 101 today around 11:30 and sure enough, there was Hank, iso-raising the bejesus out of Mr. 18 racks, who, as previously, was looking mighty sleepy. Rumor has it last time he played for 3 days straight. Today, it looked as if he'd at least been going all night. I bided my time patiently in a different (and also excellent) 20/40 game, but as I soon as I saw Hank walking over for racks I put in for a table change. By 3:15 I had the Jesus seat myself, immediately to the left of this mega-fish. And boy did it pay out....Some hands:

I see a free flop in the big blind with 98o. 6 of us see the beautiful board of:

567 with two hearts

18 racks bets, I raise, two players call, 18 racks 3 bets, I cap it, and the two other players call. I pray silently for a black deuce.

2 of spades

18 racks checks, I bet, and the two heart draws both call. 18 racks now check/raises and I visibly lick my chops while 3-betting. The two heart draws call again, one actually declaring "Give me a heart one time dealer!" while putting 80 more dollars into this redonkulous pot. This time I actually call out for "Black paint please dealer"

K of clubs

My hand is still the nuts, and Mr. 18 racks pays me off with his pocket 7s. Admittedly he played this hand pretty well, as he had 10 outs at the nuts so check/raising the turn 4 ways, even if I show him my hand, was basically neutral EV.

A while later I see a flop with 87 of clubs for two bets about 6 ways (kicking ass/flopping like god in 6 handed pots really is how you make money sometimes). The board comes down:

Tc 6h 4c

I raise/cap the thing against Mr. 18 racks (I've got a double gutter and a club draw....any 9 or 5 gives me the nuts, and all the clubs make me happy, too). The turn is a gorgeous red 9, giving me the stone cold nuts. He does the weirdo check/raise thing again (which works really well for me when I have the nuts, as he's basically check/raising the entire table for me), and again a few people call. The board pairs the 6 on the river, but I am safe as he and another opponent both show T9 for top two pair (the other probably had my club draw dominated....nothing like good clean living to help you win a $1000 pot).

Finally, towards the end of the day, I limp in with 86 of diamonds and a raise happens once more. The flop is:

Ad 5d 2s

Just one bet goes in (Mr 18 racks doing the betting), and one of my opponents tells the dealer to put out the 4 of diamonds. I look at him, quizzically.

3d

Mr. 18 racks bets (Ac 4s...ah yes, Ace Four off suit just made a straight) and I raise. The aforementioned opponent looks perplexed, hems and haws, and declares that he is folding 53, for two pair. The preflop raiser calls again (he probably has like red kings), and Mr. 18 racks somehow calls again. The river...

5c

The opponent who just folded is pretty upset, and I can't really blame him. Mr. 18 racks pays me off and I drag yet another monster because he absolutely cannot read hands to save his life and continues to bet when he's obviously crushed.

Playing with this guy was amazing. He was literally falling asleep, at the table, almost every hand. Someone (usually the dealer, but often me) had to wake him up when he got cards, either by saying "Sir, your action" or "Aces, Wake Up!" or simply pounding the table in front of him. I actually got him a cup of coffee around 5pm without prompting, for which I was thanked profusely. More than once he gave new meaning to the phrase "wake up with a real hand", as he'd try to fold his big blind, only to be stopped by the dealer, and proceed to flop trip 3s with his T3 off suit.

I closed the day with a $1700 win. I've already won twice as much this month as all of January :)

Yeesh....

All of a sudden it's been over a week since my last post...I thought I'd gotten to the point that I could avoid that, but I guess I was wrong. I do have an excuse, though, at least for the last few days. Danielle's dad, my friend Chris, and his girlfriend Abby were all at my apartment for the weekend/superbowl festivities. We ate, drank, and were generally merry, and blogging was the furthest thing from my mind. Seriously, did you see that freaking catch? Did you see it?

So back on to the pokers....January finished out poorly, but not nearly so poorly as it looked like it might on the 20th. Neal's donation to the cause, coupled with the rest of last week's play, allowed me to book a win for the month of about $1500 (250 of which came in admittedly -EV games of black jack and sports betting). This is my first "bad" month, in that it's the first one in which, honestly, I didn't cover my living expenses. This isn't a real problem, but it's served as a reminder that things aren't always going to go as smoothly as they did in November.

Actual results from January:

2-Jan 5-200 S Limit Bay 101 -73
2-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 1381
3-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 574
5-Jan 40/80 Limit Bay 101 496
5-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -281
5-Jan 40/80 Limit Bay 101 -1780
6-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -1467
7-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City -153
8-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City -379
9-Jan 30/60 Limit Bellagio -659
9-Jan 15/30 Limit Bellagio -47
9-Jan 10/20 Limit Mirage 4
9-Jan 4/8 Horse Mirage 6
9-Jan 10/20 Limit Wynn -85
10-Jan Sports Bet Wynn 60
11-Jan Black Jack Imperial Palace 205
11-Jan 3/6 Mixed IP Imperial Palace -60
12-Jan 30/60 Limit Bellagio -1489
13-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 1367
14-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 168
14-Jan 40/80 Limit Bay 101 -381
15-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City 23
15-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -280
15-Jan 40/80 Limit Bay 101 -207
15-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 547
16-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -768
17-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City -431
17-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City 580
19-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 29
20-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -168
21-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 1249
25-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 3504
26-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 289
27-Jan 30/60 Limit Oaks -1420
28-Jan 6/12 Limit Ajs -1
28-Jan 30/60 Limit Ajs 432
28-Jan 40/80 Limit Garden City -86
28-Jan 20/40 Limit Garden City -50
29-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 1435
30-Jan 4/8 Omaha Bay 101 -54
30-Jan 20/40 Limit Bay 101 -521

My 20/40 results in particular, however, continued to be strong. For the month I played 110 hours and posted a $6700 win. Basically, if you take the time to look through that chart (which I don't expect many to do), I got crushed at 30/60 and 40/80, and that's about the long and short of it.

My poker-related February goals, which I'm going to write down here to keep me tuned into them, are as follows:

Play 22/28 days
Average 7 hours per playing day
Total hours: 154
20/40 hours: 100
30/60 hours: 20
40/80 hours: 34

I'm off to a bad start, as it's already the 3rd and I've taken one day off and only played 5.5 hours yesterday. I also have a less concrete goal of "reading and posting more on 2p2", but I'm not going to quantify that as I don't want it to turn into work.

My non-poker-related goals for the month really revolve around working out. I joined the Oracle gym,and my goal is to make it there at least 12 times (3 times a week) this month. Again so far, bad start, as I'm standing pat on zero. I also need to open my Sep-IRA, and take a hard look at my insurance to make sure I have enough.

And finally, a little bit about yesterday. I went to lunch yesterday with 3 fellow 2p2ers, at the Faultline Brewery in Sunnyvale. We talked shop, made fun of bad players, and in general had a good time. At the end, however, I lost credit card roulette for the check, so not only did I miss 2 hours of playing, but I spent almost 2 hours of wages on the endeavor. Hopefully next time I'll run better. Then Pete, Hank and I went to Bay 101, where we were greated with the longest 20/40 list I've seen in some time. I whooped Hank's ass at Ms. Pacman, and then he gave up and went home. Pete and I drove to Garden City, where I promptly laid a proper whoopin' on everybody for 2 racks in 5.5 hours. February is already lookin' up :)