What Did You Think Was Going to Happen?

I'm going to try and write a post while I'm waiting for action online. I've become a bit of a nit about which games I play in, mostly because of the graphs I posted a while ago that showed (over an admittedly small sample size) that I have no idea how to play when there are 4 or less people dealt into the hand. So I'm mostly focusing on playing "all the full ring games" on full tilt and this often results in me spending a good deal of time waiting to get into the games. I'll still play the 6 max tables occasionally, but for now I'm trying to focus on what I'm good at, I guess. I'm still plowing through the videos on DC, but not as quickly as I might like....

Jesse gets seats on all 4 full ring games at once....

OK and we're back. I played about 300 hands and basically broke evenish I think (I didn't even check good for me), but just now did qualify for Iron status in the Ironman promotion for the first time. Hurray for me. Anyway, it's not that I'm afraid of the short handed games or even that I feel uncomfortable in them (babar asked me about my comfort level and I basically said that it's impossible for me to feel uncomfortable in any game I play online because of my propping experience at Garden City, where I would play 5 handed 40/80 kill games for hours at a time. After you do that you really can't be uncomfortable at 3/6, if I'm understanding the meaning of the word correctly). It's just that I feel like I need to commit to playing in games where I have a proven track record of generating winnings (or at least ones where the evidence doesn't lean the other way), and so long as I can play 5 or 6 tables at a time well it really is close to worth my time from a purely $/hour point of view. Anyway....

I was going to complain about Commerce again, so here goes. One day this week I decided to bail on HG to head over there because the game was just not very good and I wanted a change of scenery anyway. Changing scenery to Commerce is of questionable merit unless you are currently engaged in a firefight on the streets of some Middle Eastern city, but so are a lot of the things I do. So I get to Commerce and find myself 6th up with 1 game currently running. This is a catastrophe, which is proven as I wait 40 minutes before they attempt to call down a new game, with me now being first up on the board and about 10 names strewn behind me. So we do the Commerce new game dance, whereby the 3 of us that actually want to play sit down and the chip runner guy calls for a dealer and brings over chips, but then something hilarious happens. The floorman (I'm not going to use names here but man do I really want to) basically says "where are my players?!" and the chip runner is like "you told me to start a game" and they in general just start bickering with each other in front of the now 4 of us sitting at the table. I can't help myself and suggest "You guys could actually try calling down the game", because they HADN'T EVEN DONE THAT yet. The floorman just walks away and the chiprunner is upset that he's leaving him alone but goes to the phone and calls the game over the intercom which as expected doesn't really change a fucking thing but at least he tried. So we are sitting there with our cocks in our hands and finally a 6th player shows up and the dealer gets us to draw for the button and of course I pull the big blind and just as I'm slinging it into the pot the floorman comes over to inform me that I have a seat in the main game. I snatch those chips back so fast the table doesn't know what hit them and say not a word as I practically run to the main game. As I'm leaving the guy with Parkinson's puts up his hand as if he wants to be called on at school to point out to the floorman that they don't have a game. Not a single hand is dealt, and eventually the game goes off like half an hour late. The thing that amazes me most is that I am SURE at least 3 of those guys were planning to button each other, basically seeing if they could get free hands then lobbying when the blind game. Anyway....

The main game is the slowest game on Earth, mainly because of this one Asian lady who is literally taking 5 seconds too long on every single action asked of her. For someone like me this wouldn't be a huge problem, but for someone who is taking like 75% of her hands to the river and often calling multiple bets one at a time on the same street the effect is quite large. The game has slowed from 35-40 hands an hour down to something like 25, and everyone is a bit on edge. The best part is that the lady is lighting chips on fire, rebuying a rack at a time literally every 30 minutes or so. She also successfully requests a set up on the hour 5 hours in a row (2, 3, 4, 5 and 6). On the 5pm setup I comment to the only other guy who stays at the table with me and her that I think we had just gone an entire dealer down without a single player incurring a missed blind button. This has to be some sort of record at Commerce, and I'm glad I was a part of it, but it really didn't bode well for what was about to happen to us. Sure enough the setup is ready and there are 3 of us sitting there, me, the other dude, and the pissed off Asian lady now stuck 5 or 6 racks in the game wanting nothing more than to be pitched two more cards so that she can call to the river with no pair no draw in hopes of getting even. She is now livid and calls the floorman over demanding he get the players back to the game. I say vacantly "Sometimes this happens when you call for a set up" and she looks at me inquisitively (I don't think she understood, but I am of course sitting on her immediate left). I turn to her and ask "Really, what did you think was going to happen?" and leave it at that.

But It Was Soooted

Rip roarin' 8 handed 20/40 game, UTG, +1, and +2 limp, HJ raises, CO 3 bets, button says "I think they're trying to chase me out" while calling 3 cold. I behold the 87dd and, for the first time in my life perhaps, call 3 bets stone cold. Somehow the big blind and UTG fold, but +1 puts on the spew cap. +2 also folds everyone else calls 5 ways 23 bets. Button says "one for the road dealer".

976r

Button cries out "It's a Christmas Miracle!" and CO bets anyway....button raises, I just call, spew capper calls, HJ folds, CO 3s, we all call. I think I'm supposed to cap here but am not sure. 35 small bets.

Qr

We all call the COs bet. 21.5 big bets.

5r

Ding ding ding I donk of death in rhythm, button says "I can't believe you play that crap!" CO calls I declare "But it was sooted!"

EZ Game IMO.

What's One More Graph Amongst Friends

Just thought I'd put this one up also because it is hilarious. It's this month's play at 2/4 so far. Even for me the last little bit is impressive.

It's Becoming a Theme

Yesterday as I was leaving Hawaiian Gardens at 4:15 and noticing just how beautiful the weather was outside (it had stopped raining...gasp yes it does rain in Souther California, more than the locals would have you believe I think...for the first time in a week) I thought to myself "wouldn't it be nice to go home and actually enjoy the rest of your Saturday?" Of course I did no such thing, went to Commerce, immediately won a rack and a half, considered again leaving but did not because I had only played like 4 hours on the day, stuck around for 3 more hours and light 3 racks on fire to book a $1000 loss for the day. Today I watched the Steelers luckbox their way to a 5th victory (it was a very strange game...they could have been down like 17 to 3, but should have been winning like 17 to 0, when the score was in fact 7-6....then there was just an unbelievable clock mis-management at the half, and the third Ben fumble at the end of the game and just wow) and instead of going surfing with Danielle decided to stay home for a few hours of online play. And this is what happened. At least I got some rake back.

Saving Bets

I used to write about owning people all the time. I'm not really sure why I stopped, but I feel like I haven't written a post like that in an extremely long time. So here goes...maybe I owned these people, maybe I got extremely lucky and am being results oriented, but one way or another I saved a tremendous number of bets. These hands definitely count as running hot these days:

Hand 1

The game is off the chain as usual and I raise an EP limper with the JTss. I'm currently remembering a mid stakes thread wherein I think howmany pointed out astutely that it is more difficult to be dealt the beautiful hand that is jack ten suited than even pocket aces, and that in the specific case we were discussing folding such a rare hand would be nearly unforgivable sin. Anyway I pretty much sling two bets into the pot with the jack ten suited whenever I can, mainly because nothing bad can happen. I'll either have isolated a limper or created a big pot with a big pot hand. Anyway, the latter happens here and I create a 6 way pot with my nut maker and we see a flop of:

883ss

And one of the blinds just donks right out. He's bad, real bad, and for the life of me I can't figure out what he has. The EP limper folds and I glance behind me to see 3 players left with cards and just call the bet (here's that old volume hand trick) and to my amazement everyone folds. The wheels start churning in my head and I consider if there is now some chance to take down this pot without spiking my hand, but before I can get too far the dealer is turning:

883ss-9r

That ain't bad at all. He bets and I consider raising then think better of it. People don't donk into 5 players, get 4 folds, then fail to showdown against an obviously fishy turn raise. Like, if I had a hand I'd have raised the flop to try and protect it, right? I don't know if he knows this but whatever, I just call.

883ss-9r-6s

And he bets anyway. In the parlance of limit hold them he is "polarized", meaning he pretty much doesn't have any medium strength hands left in his range. He's either got a freaking monster or a stone bluff, and in this case given he donked into like 17 people on the flop I'm guessing it's a monster. He could have 89 (so sick) or a bigger flush or whatever, I don't really know, but depending what level he's operating on betting the river with just two pair or even naked trips should make somewhere between zero and extremely little sense to him. I fight myself for what feels like 20 seconds before finally committing to just call, and am shown 99. So to recap, my opponent gets 2.5 bets post flop, total, with top full house in a 6 way raised pot where the super aggro preflop raiser not only flopped a flush draw, but turned an OESD and got there!

Hand 2

I don't remember the details of this hand (like how many other people took the flop but it was probably something like 3), but it basically goes down like this:

I raise ATs and get like 14 callers, including villain who is a super straight forward passive player that I can read like a book. More on that in hand 4, and the flop falls off AA2. I bet, and am raised by villain and everyone else clears out because it's freaking pretty obviously villain has an ace. And if she doesn't she's not putting in more action if I 3 bet, so I just call planning to call down. With a better ace I'd go for some more action, but honestly AJ and AQ are definitely in her cold calling range (as opposed to her 3 betting range) and AKo could even be in there and there are also jackpot considerations and well whatever I just call. The turn is a 5 and I check/call, now 100% sure she has an ace and thinking that I have a very slight equity edge over her hand (she'd probably cold call any suited ace, and like maybe A9o). The river is an 8 and I check/call again and she shows me A5s for the turned nuts. I probably missed a little value here, but I'm not entirely sure and felt pretty good afterwards for saving $60 in this particular instance.

Hand 3

These last two happened just today at the end of a winning session. This Asian software developer guy who thinks he's hot shit and is actually pretty solid opens and I 3 bet with AKo. A weak big blind comes along and we see a flop of:

Qs Js 4h

They both check, but the developer does so in such a way that I can just tell something is up. He has a big hand....I can't really even describe what I saw, but it was definitely a tell. So I check back, hoping to spoke some help. I receive:

Ts

The big blind checks and the developer fires instantly. I look left like a good little boy and the big blind has practically already folded his hand. This eliminates any reason whatsoever to raise for protection against lone spades and reduces the hand to a simple exercise in the "they always put you on ace king" theorem, which states, unsurprisingly, that "they always put you on ace king". The ramifications here of the theorem are pretty severe, given that I actually do have ace king and it should be pretty obvious. I basically turned my hand face up on the flop, which is probably bad, but I did it because I picked up a tell which he probably doesn't know he gave off and it was a 3 way pot yada yada yada....the point is that dude really should put me on the exact hand that I have and is betting anyway. I don't have a spade, so I just call. The river falls:

Qs Js 4h - Ts - Ad

And he bets extremely quickly. Now with even less reason to raise I just call hoping to chop and am shown the K9ss for the turned straight flush. Another recap here is that in a 3 way 3 bet pot in which the 3 better TURNED broadway and my opponent held a straight flush, he collected 2 big bets total post flop.

Hand 4

This was the very next hand, and the villain from hand 2 opened in MP and I 3 bet her with, big surprise, the Ace King off. Somebody ate 3 bets behind me like a champ and we saw the flop 3 ways for 3 a piece of:

J93cc

And me holding the ace of clubs for what it's worth (4% equity, or 8 dollars American, IMO). Villain just donks right into it. No problem, no big deal, just donks like it's nothing. I call pretty quickly cause I mean what can I do, fold? The guy behind me folds (LOL, you called 3 bets cold preflop and can't put $20 into the pot closing the action at 12:1 on a J93 board? For reals? You are my hero). The turn falls:

J93cc - Ad

And villain tanks. Instantly my brain remembers the last 2 times I've seen her do this, specifically take the line donk-bet, donk-check (which is the opposite of donk betting...you are clearly the aggressor and should definitely be betting but check) with an out of tempo pause and nearly visible smoke coming out of her ears. The last two times her check/raise has been swift and merciless, and she's been holding top full in one case and top two in the other and before she's even acted i decided that if she checks I am actually going to check topsies back HU on the turn with no straight or flush in sight. She checks I check we check. The river is a blank and she fires a bet and I call instantly. She shows me the Ace Jack for the top two and I smile a large grin, rack up my chips and head home for the day.

What Is To Be Made Of This?

Many poker players try not to look at their results. I have a friend who is currently engaged in a prop bet that he won't check his online results (graphs, poker track, account balance, anything) for the entire month of October. The guy plays for a living and probably has 5 figure days from time to time. Basically it's accepted that looking at your short term results isn't a good way to say in the right frame of mind, because to be honest they carry almost no information whatsoever. After I posted those three graphs of my "full ring" "5-6 handed" and "4 or less handed" play, the main response I got from people who know about this sort of thing was that the 7K hand sample size for the 4 handed play graph made it completely meaningless. Doug L likened it to picking a major baseball player and calculating his batting average during Tuesday afternoon games with 1 out. The point is, and this is hard to truly internalize and understand, even several months worth of results for a live player really don't mean that much and in a perfect world you wouldn't torture yourself with them. I've tried to do this with my 20/40 results, but yesterday I gave in and decided I wanted to generate my lifetime graph. Part of me was afraid of what I'd find, but another part of me realizes I need to make an honest assessment as to how long I should keep this up. So here you go, dollars on the vertical, hours on the horizontal:

As you can see, I've played almost 3000 hours of live 20/40, which I have to admit is both way more and way less than I'd hoped. On the one hand, I wanted to be entrenched as a 40/80 full timer by now, and that just hasn't worked out (mainly because of failed shots and using my "bankroll" for living expenses....you're supposed to have living expenses separate, but if you have no other income...well, you get the picture), leaving me with more 20/40 hours than honestly anybody else know. But at the same time in the past 12 calendar months I have only played about 1150 hours of live 20/40, well under the accepted "2000 hours a year" full time number. Why is that? Well I spent a fair number of weeks propping during that time, which obviously cost me hours (both spent sitting around and playing other games). I played a good bit of 15/30 and 30/60 at the Oaks on my off days back in the Bay Area, and spent some time playing 40/80 as well during the stretch (and even a few days at Hustler in the 25). So all in all I think my total hours played/worked isn't that far below 2000, but I don't have the time/energy/desire to actually figure it out. For now I'm content to keep playing as much as I can without burning out.

At the peak of my run good (around Thanksgiving 2008) my lifetime win rate through 750 hours was over $60. As of yesterday it was pegged at $36, without accounting for jackpot shares or other player promotion rewards thingies which would push it up very close to the gold standard of $40/hour. The questions here are obvious. Why has it felt like I've been getting killed when I've been winning basically at the exact rate a professional is supposed to win at, a rate that would get me labelled online as a superuser who practically had to be cheating? Was I running exceptionally well the first 1000 hours, exceptionally badly after that, or a little of both? Has my play deteriorated? Am I playing in tougher games? It's tempting to derive answers to these questions from the graph, when in fact doing so could be downright dangerous. But the real question is this. If I've really run "averagely" over the past 26 months, and been as miserable for long stretches as I have been, do I really want to continue? For right now the answer is still, unbelievably, yes.

Milestones

As many of you know, my 2p2 username is jesse8888. I signed up long ago and really wasn't thinking when I did so; the numbers are meaningless. However, my 8888th post is fast approaching on the site, and I'm accepting suggestions for what it should be. My current plan is to update my Pooh Bah thread, but don't really know what I'm going to say.

Also, my blog crossed $100 in ad revenue last week, which means Google will actually send me a check. It's a trivial sum of money, but so is the dollar bill you see hanging on the wall at most restaurants. Thanks for reading.

The Chessmaster

Callipygian (the resident math nerd in small stakes hold 'em, which is a title not won lightly I must say) recently suggested that I do some more posts regarding the characters I run into on a daily basis now that I've changed venues. While I don't think I have anybody as interesting to write about as WTK or Neal, nor do I currently seem to have the energy to do any of the characters great justice, hopefully what I'm about to say will at least make somebody chuckle. As an aside, over the last two years I have learned enough about poker to understand that a lot of what WTK was doing really made a great deal of sense. Pete and I developed some theories on him, one of which being that since he bought in with purple chips he must have been a long term winner, and my personal favorite "I don't like playing with WTK I like playing with people that are playing with WTK." Rereading my post about him really makes me wonder. I had a lot of it "wrong" back then in terms of how I was dealing with him, and yet back then I seemed to crush every 20/40 game I sat in where as now a days, well, as you all know things haven't exactly been going well for over a year at this point. Anyway....

First of all, part of the reason nobody stands out in my mind as an obvious candidate for this post is that there are just so many assholes out there that it really takes tremendous effort to stand out from the crowd. The HG 20 ecosystem has at least 5 regulars I can think of that are more irritating than all but the worst of the worst players I ever encountered up north (really only Clark from GC and the great Neal himself make the cut). But I must chose one for the current roasting and therefore without further adieu I present to you The Chessmaster. The man earned his name by basically challenging someone to play chess at the table, after said someone declared that he was pretty good at chess and suggested they play for money. Chessmaster grandly claimed he was "ranked" and kept using that word "ranked" over and over again until we all knew that he was ranked but as usual when the Chessmaster speaks had no fucking clue what it meant. Eventually the two started playing air chess (which is decidedly less cool than air guitar) by announcing moves to each other and (apparently) keeping track of the board state in their heads. Within 10 moves other guy ceded, saying "yeah you're a lot better than me" and that was that for everyone except Chessmaster, who didn't stop telling the story for what felt like three days.

The first thing you need to know about the Chessmaster is that he is one of those players who thinks he knows what is doing but in fact is often the biggest fish at the table. That sort of delusion is getting harder and harder to find these days, and I really do thank my lucky stars every time he's in the game. The man honestly thinks he's a winning player; he's not one of those people who accept that they are getting somewhat the worst of it (like I do when I play something like craps or blackjack in Las Vegas) but are there to have fun. He has literally one of the largest gaps between his perceived and actual skill level that I have ever seen. And his sins are the most basic and common sins of limit hold 'em; he plays way too many hands, cold-calls way too many raises, and calls way too many bets post flop. That's really it, and that's really all it takes. If he were an online player his stats would probably be something like 80/8/.3 or some such redonkulous line that I would immediately color dark blue which is my fishiest of colors (I pressed it into service for the truly gifted, the players for whom purple simply does not suffice). And compounding his looseness is the fact that he is very easy to avoid paying off. I find myself making what would be considered absurd lay downs to him all the time, not only confident in my decision but often getting it confirmed by him flashing me whatever the current "it" happens to be. The dude is just awful.

But that doesn't stop him for berating other people for their bad plays. His favorite lines are "nice catch" when you pair up on the turn to defeat his pair of 4s, or "raising with the worst hand" to describe anyone who open raises basically anything less than Ace Jack preflop. He loves to turn to whomever is unfortunate enough to be sitting next to him (which is very often me as this guy usually gets must moved over later in the day and is decidedly a king maker, or in this case Zeus Seat maker) and explain why what the other player did was so bad. His explanations are comical, mostly because his ability to read hands is practically non-existent. Without going into detail, he usually puts someone on a preposterous hand for the situation, and therefore just assumes that other people will do the same thing. Like, he definitely hasn't figured out that people who bet the flop after raising before it don't necessarily have top pair, and he assumes that when he bets the flop everyone knows that he has top pair or better. Now truth be told I do know that, but as he himself proves every 15 minutes or so, it is decidedly not difficult to crack top pair....anyway. Last week I made an absurd call down after the following action:

Some people limp, I raise the AQ, a fish cold calls the CO, one of the blinds caps, I just call, the fish caps it, we all call, and the flop is 5 ways. The board runs out:

JJ3r-Js-7s

Putting 3 spades on the river. The fish in the CO has bet every street, and on the river the preflop 3-bettor in the blind folds and it's on me to call or fold closing the action at like 16:1. As I'm pondering my decision Chessmaster (neatly tucked to right and $100 light thanks to this current pot) says "what are you thinking about? He's got a big pocket pair, I don't know what you're thinking about." Now first of all it's extremely rude to even address me in this situation. Second of all, he definitely definitely definitely shouldn't be telling me what to do. And third of all, as should be obvious, this guy doesn't have a big pocket pair. When two people limp and somebody raises and you're in the CO, you don't just call hoping it will get 3 bet so you can cap with your aces. You just don't do it. He continues "Do you have a pair" to which I respond kind of angrily "of course not" and just keep trying to talk myself into a call. Finally I do call and the fish rolls A8. Of spades. For the runner runner nut flush. Chessmaster declares "See I knew he had it" and the table is just speechless as I muck (it's one of those spots where people who are half paying attention and think they have everything figured out realize that something is going on that they were completely unaware of....it's kind of a funny moment to be honest).

So horrible play and attempts to educate the fish as to the folly of their ways aside, the Chessmaster is also one of the most obnoxious people I have ever met. He will literally interrupt you, from the other side of the table, to make a point that has absolutely nothing to do with what you're talking about. He will say the same thing 4 or 5 times in a row, restating his point even after you respond directly with "I understand that you need to prove to everyone that you are right and I am wrong, but would you mind stopping so I can finish my story?" It's as if he literally is incapable of hearing the words that come out of your mouth. Back on the day it was 113 degrees (my life....fuck my life) I was reading CNN's blog giving a direct quote which was something like "The temperature in LA just reached 113 degrees, setting an all time high for the county" and before I could even finish he said "That's not true it's been hotter." My response was "Well, it says here, on CNN, that it's the hottest it's ever been" and the conversation deteriorated from there, with him basically making ass of himself repeatedly explaining how I was wrong and it had been hotter, even after I said clearly "Look, I am just reading a quote from the internet" he continued to insist I was wrong and it was just amazing.

Today someone brought up the fact that Massachusetts is a commonwealth and I attempted to dazzle the table with my knowledge that their are four commonwealths in the United States, specifically Massachusetts, Pennsyltucky, Virgina, and Kentucky (which should be known as The Patron State of Shooting Stuff no matter what Marky Mark says), to which Chessmaster responded "Like New England, when they banded together for gerrymandering." I want you, dear reader, to think about all the ways in which that sentence is preposterous. Myself and the other two players in the conversation were just stunned by it's inappropriateness. It had NOTHING to do with what we were talking about. Zero. He went on to mention New England again, taking our astonishment to mean that we were unfamiliar with the term. "Don't you guys know what New England is?" was his next attempt to take control of the conversation and show us that he was the smartest guy at the table. "Yes I do, but that just has nothing to do with what we're talking about" was my response. I'm getting bolder with this guy, testing how big of an ass I can be, and so far it would seem I'm nowhere near the limits. Apparently he really doesn't listen when you speak and has no ability to discern subtext, mockery, or sarcasm (just like he can't read hands). He continued to explain to us that the New England states banded together for gerrymandering, and that that was in fact what we were talking about. At this point there really was nothing left to say; the Chessmaster once again got the last word, with his foils left in stunned silence, wondering which was more probable (or less impossible): is he actually this dumb or is he somehow putting on an act?

Boom Boom

So there is this Asian guy in my game named Richard who is actually freaking hilarious. Most of the players in my games who talk non-stop are real ass hats, but he is constantly busting their balls and just today declared that most of them need to go back to kindergarten. He's just funny.

So this Asian woman is walking around with an automated blood pressure taker cuff thingamabob and for some reason he calls her over to take his blood pressure. She obliges and the cuff goes on and before you know it we have a reading:

155/109

The look on her face is one of serious concern, and she suggests to him that he go home and take some rest. His response:

Richard: "Sure, go home make boom boom"

Doctor lady: "No! No more boom boom for you!"

Richard: "I can't live without boom boom!"

Doctor lady: "Boom boom could kill you!"

Richard: "Then I'll die happy"

Quickie

Worst Player Ever power limps the button, I raise A5o in the SB, BB folds WPE calls. Board runs out KQ4-5-A and I value bet every street, with WPE check calling all the way and fast rolling K2o. I show my hand and it goes like this:

Jesse: "What a flop!"

George: "Wow what a flop. How'd you know it was coming? What chapter is that in?"

Jesse: "That one is in Mandarin"

Fantasy Football Update

Just a little update on fantasy football. My teams are 4-1 and 3-1, with the 3-1 match still undecided (we have Dustin Keller and 30 points, he has AP and Shonn Greene). My dad has been doing a wonderful job making sure I have almost zero responsibility, and I've learned a couple more lessons this year.

First of all, if you insist on drafting a "stud" from a shitty team, fine. But for crying out loud don't draft another one from the same team. We had Deangelo Williams and Steve Smith penciled in as number 1s, and Carolina is just...so...bad. Like they can't even sustain 6 play drives that result in punts. Holy freaking crap they are awful. Our solution involves Benjarvis Green Ellis, Brian Hartline, a voodoo doll and some pigs blood.

It really is OK to draft a monster QB early, especially in our league where you can start 2 QBs 6 times. We took Peyton with the 10th pick and holy cow is it nice. Plug 'em in and watch him throw 50 balls every week. On that roster we are currently carrying seven (7) WRs, and Peyton gives us that flexibility. At this time last year we were carrying like 4 shitty QBs hoping to find one acceptable starter and routinely getting 8 points out of our flexes.

Also I have relearned that you really can't predict what defense is going to be any good. We have Atlanta (week 4 add) and Pittsburgh (drafted) and basically are just lucky to have them.

And in closing, don't ever draft a guy named Legadu.

A Cold Hard Truth

I decided to take a look at my HEM stats for the first time in a while. Not the stats that define how I play, but the stats that define my results. What I found wasn't terribly surprising in retrospect, but really has made me think about what I need to do in order to improve and keep playing this game for a living. The following three graphs pretty much sum it up, which are for all the hands in my database at 2/4 and 3/6 (unilaterally the numbers are better at 2/4, because the games are softer and the rake structure is actually better I think....you tend to get more than 50% more rakeback money for playing 3/6, which means they are raking more than 50% more on average, which means it's a worse structure). First, all hands that I played 7-ways or more:

Without a horrendous downswing early on (which was at 3/6 and was the reason I switched to trying to play 6-max games several months ago...it looks way worse when this thing is plotted in dollars, not big bets), this graph would be stupifyingly good. With it, it's still a very respectable win rate of more than 1 bet per 100, with rakeback (the blue line) adding in some extra win rate and padding out the break even stretches. It's only 17K hands, but it's pretty good looking so far. At 2/4 only it looks even better. Next, we'll have a look at my play 5-6 handed:

Meh....this is not great, obviously, but it is still indicative of actually winning. Actually it started off pretty well, but the 400 bets I've lost over the last 35K hands or so is extremely discouraging. Once again, it looks much, much better for just the 2/4 hands, with me actually losing (before rakeback) at all 3/6 hands dealt 5-6 ways to date. One might be tempted to say this sample size is adequate, but really it's not. It's enough to know that I'm not randomly clicking buttons, but it's not really enough to say with much confidence anything but "you probably are a small winner". Ah yes then, here we go my friends, the the cold hard truth. Here is my graph for hands dealt 4 ways or fewer:

Great googely moogely. Some of that is hopefully run bad; it's almost impossible for me to believe that I could be that inadequate short handed. Losing 5 big bets per 100 in the long run would be legendary. But even though I only have 7K hands here, there can really be no debate that I am a loser when the hand is dealt 4 ways or fewer. So what should I do? I've known that I'm not a great short handed player for some time now, but I thought in the back of my mind that I was getting better, that I was improving, and that it really wasn't that big of a short coming. Well these graphs pretty much nix that idea. I guess it's basically back to the drawing board.....

LOL, Bicycle Club-Aments

So The Bicycle Club (AKA The Bike) used to be where it was all at in terms of poker. All the old timers tell stories about the glory days at the bike, about whales and dirty floor men and corruption and all sorts of stuff that happened when they played draw poker and low ball which in my mind was like 250 years ago but in actuality occurred in 1987. To make a long story short, the Bike is not what it once was, and is currently paying players $5/hour to play in their 20/40 limit hold 'em game. It's not quite that simple, but it's close. Your first 25 hours pay you $50, and after that you get $5/hour. During certain hours (9am-12pm, 5pm-8pm, and 1am-4am) you get $10/hour, and you have to cash out every month.

Obviously if all things were equal it would be a no brainer for me to give these games a shot. This promotion would amount to nearly $1000 a month for a full time player, perhaps more if you were to arrange your hours to maximize the time you spent getting the full $10/hour. So for the last 4 days I did give the games a shot, and boy did it suck ass.

First of all, the Bike is only 3.8 miles from Commerce, but might as well be in Lithuania. There are like 14 different freeways you can take to get there, and so far in my 6 round trips I have encountered 3 bad traffic jams and two borderline catastrophes. Saturday the 710 was closed (actually closed) and today there was an accident on 22 East (admittedly the road I'd take home from even HG) that cost me like 30 minutes of my life. And second of all, the games are basically terrible. All three days I left because I couldn't justify staying. It's not that these guys are rockstars, but when you've got people literally flinging feces at each other at several other casinos in the area it just doesn't make sense to sit through a usually nitty often downright taggy game for $5/hour. So my great experiment ended after just 3 days and something 17 hours.

In other news, somebody must have cued this guy in about me because I have to say he doesn't beat much on the river:

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with 4 Q
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks

Flop: (4 SB) A 3 4 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP2 folds, SB folds

Turn: (3 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls

River: (5 BB) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls

Final Pot: 7 BB
Hero shows 4 Q (three of a kind, Fours)
UTG mucks 9 2
Hero wins 6.75 BB
(Rake: $1.00)