Tuesday, January 26, 2010

That Didn't Last Long

Turns out that it's just as hard to do a prop job well after you've given notice as it is to give a shit about a software development job after you've made up your mind that you're leaving. Tonight marks the end of my tenure at Garden City; I just couldn't justify sitting in the 40/80 for a few more hours, and tomorrow, once I got to the level of tilt I achieved, so I turned in my badge, cashed out my box, and rode off into the moon set.

The night started off well. I played 20/40 for 30 minutes with Torello and Yoda, played a hand like a donkey (got 3 bet preflop and the board came down AA4 or something and the 3-bettor checked behind me. I bet the turn and called him down when he raised. He had AK obviously I mean what else can he possibly have other than perhaps a full house) and then managed to win a bunch of pots and actually be up about a rack when they called me into the 40. Within 90 minutes I was up over $2000 on the night, but I wasn't happy. I was nervous. I knew what was coming. I knew I was not allowed to win.

So when I flopped a set of threes in a kill pot, went 5 bets on the flop of A35, got c/r'ed on the turn and called down to see the small blinds 42s (I mean it was only 2 bets preflop, he was fully 1/6th of the way in and had excellent post flop position so I completely understand why he wasn't able to ditch the second nut four high suited), I contemplated my options and decided to try to finish the night after taking a lap off to cool down. About 4 hands later I 3-bet Mike P with 55 and took a flop of 773. This is as good as they get. He called. The turn brought a 4 and I already knew what was coming. I have a theory that one way that I am particularly adept at running bad is the turning of gutshots in HU 3-bet pots. You'll note that when the check/raise comes (as it did in this hand) there are 7 bets in the pot and I have 6 outs to make straight or full house. If my implied odds are zero I have basically an even money situation (there are 47 cards I cannot see, and 6, or roughly 1/8th, of them are good). But my implied odds really aren't zero, they are substantially positive (definitely over a full big bet as I'll often collect two when I hit), and therefore I have a call. I can narrow his range down a good bit because of his preflop raise, so I know for example that he doesn't have 65 and that 33 and 44 are pretty unlikely (for him anyway) and basically well to make a long story short I'm pretty sure calling here wins something like 1/6th to 1/3rd of a big bet more than folding, and when a big bet is $80 well you understand you're smart folk. So I call and of course fold the river cause it's a queen and Mike flashes me A7o which was giving me two bets on any river that I hit so I was right about my implied odds being pretty positive and I rack up my chips and just get the fuck out of dodge.

This experience did cause me to contemplate a new theory which I will perhaps expand at a later time. I think run bad like this creates nits, and I think the big dirty secret either people won't admit or don't know is that nits actually win up to a pretty high level (mostly because their weaker opponents don't figure out that they are nits and continue to pay them off). Both hands that I played preflop were super thin. I opened the pocket 3s three seats off the button, which I think is one pip too loose in general but the kill was in the natural BB so the SB should have been more likely to fold as the game basically changed from a 2/4 blind structure to a 1/3 structure. But anyway the point is that folding my hand is a fine choice preflop, one that I didn't make, which ended up costing me 6.5 kill pot big bets. And the 55 isn't exactly a slam dunk 3-bet either. Mike P opens pretty wide though and with position I should be able to own him pretty badly, but of course because I run bad and turn a gutshot and completely lose the ability to play well and end up getting tied to the pot by his expert slow play. But that's just how I run.

So that's it. I'm on vacation for 19 days. Hopefully when I get down south I'll still have some cash in my pocket.


Captain R said...

3 off the button, I think 77 is a slam-dunk open-raise, 66 is fine, 55 marginal. 44- I just fold barring a tell that someone is going to fold behind you.

jesse8888 said...

Like I said, I think it's a pip too low. I'm not sure why I opened it other than it being a kill pot which like I said should make the blinds more likely to fold (the SB because he's only only 1/6th, not 1/4th in if I raise, and the bb because in theory winning the pot costs him money cause he'll have to post a kill again next hand). But those reasons can't be compelling enough to make much of a difference I don't think.