Let's Play a Big Pot

I played this hand this morning and then posted it on 2p2. I think I played it pretty poorly in retrospect, but it's hard to be objective about the turn decision after seeing what happened:

Reads, and remember all stats filtered for 7+ handed.

Initial raiser seems laggy and decent but I only have like 50 hands.

First coldcaller is one of the worst players I have ever seen, 40/1 with amazing postflop tendencies.

CO is a bad nit. He's like 13/6/2 and obviously isn't great over a reasonable sample.

SB is a bad lag, 27/16/1.8 over 800 hands. However he just 3-bet half the table from the SB, so he probably has a pretty big hand.

Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with 7 8
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 caps!, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls

I got some advice that I should just 3-bet here, which I think has merit simply to expand your three betting range. But strictly in a vacuum regarding this hand, I think it's better to let the blinds come along in hopes of getting one more player to pad the pot while I'm drawing or dump bets into it when I do make my hand.

Flop: (21 SB) 7 9 J (5 players)
SB bets, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls, MP1 folds

Honestly my thinking here was that the SB was going to put the cap on for me most of the time anyway, so their really wasn't any reason to do it myself. But I should have just cold-capped it, my equity is monstrous but there are all kinds of hands I'd like to fold out to clean up some straight and two pair outs (specifically I'd like queens to fold). This is minor really; we are debating putting in a 4th bet that's pretty likely to go in anyway.

Turn: (16 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

Somehow someway MP1 folded the last street for 1 bet after putting in a raise. Specifically he folded at something like 31:1, admittedly not quite close the action but still. That's just hilarious. Now we come to my turn thought process which kind of went along the following lines. Hmmm, they both checked. That's just silly. I guess the SB really does have AK and the CO really does have a flush draw. Crap I have a flush draw, his is probably better than 8 high. But wait, I have a pair! I will bet for value. Besides if they have black aces and kings (which I mean really how the fuck can they have those hands they both just checked) I still have FORTY PERCENT EQUITY (which speaks to why I should have put on the cold cap on the flop but whatever). Things then promptly go directly to shit. They do not pass go, but someone is about to collect $200. I grit my teeth and call two bets cold for third time this hand (not counting the time I called 3 bets cold) and hope the SB doesn't find a cap with his aces or jacks or whatever it is that he has over that that he's so happy about. As an aside here, CO's line here is RIDICULOUS and my bullshit meter spiked off the charts. You're going to screw play check/raise the guy who called 3 bets cold on the flop? Really? After you 3 bet the previous street, you're not just going to blast away here, but rather risk giving a free card? Makes zero sense whatsoever honestly, but who am I to judge. At this point I pretty much decided that the CO had a set (remember he's a nit) and that the SB had aces (he could have jacks also I suppose). So to the river we go.

River: (25 BB) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

After all that, I spike two pair, they both check, and I decided to check. My assumption on the turn was that I was dealing with a set, trying to make either a straight or a flush. Now that I have a chance to check back two pair I'm happy to do so. Stay tuned, I'll give results after the thread on 2p2 runs its course.