Monday, November 1, 2010

All the Cool Kids Are Doing It

So I'm going to give it another go. A few months back I decided to mix "online days" into my playing schedule and it didn't go so well. Maybe I got a little unlucky, but in retrospect it's pretty clear that I was unprepared mentally for the gauntlet that is online poker and mechanically for the aggressive 6 max games I was trying to play in. I've been working on my short-handed play, feel that I've learned a good bit about myself and the things I need to do to keep playing at a high level throughout a day in my apartment, and am committed to focusing on playing "fullish" games for the time being (meaning I'll play a lot of my bread and butter full rings games, and only mix in 6 max games at full tables where I have a good seat with at least 2 very weak players in the game). And I'm not going to be mixing this in; I'm going to play online exclusively every day this week and simply see if I go insane or not.

The numbers required for success here are daunting, however. Even if I crush the full ring games for 1 big bet per 100 (which as far as I know is about as well as you're allowed to do, give or take) I obviously need to play literally thousands of hands per day. Assuming I split my time between 2/4 and 3/6 games at first (so we can just use 1 big bet = $5), even playing 3000 hands a day would net....$150 in expectation. That's not really enough. There is some bonus money to be had from several sources such as rakeback, the ironman promotion, and frequent player points, but for full ring games these are secondary to the money actually won in the game. I'm not exactly sure, but my rough calculations suggest that combined they aren't worth $5/100 hands. First things first, though, I have to see if I'm able to actually log somewhere near the number of hands needed for a reasonable chance at success. If I go bonkers after 2K hands or find myself unable to play at a high level at more than 4 or 5 tables at once the entire situation will be a non-starter. If, however, I'm able to log 3 or 4 thousand hands a day by playing 6 or even 8 tables at once at nearly my best, there is hope I could make it work.

This is certainly not where I thought I'd end up when I started down this road over 2 years ago, but it's where I am and it's time to make the best of it. Spending 40 hours a week with the Chessmasters of the world is simply not what I want to do with my life. Clicking buttons on a screen for 8 hours a day doesn't seem much better at first, but I can't knock it 'til I try it. Wish me luck.


Captain R said...

Honestly, this reminds me of that Meg Whitman/Arnold commercial where they say "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".

But good luck! My capcheta verification word is laging below, so I think this is a good omen.

Sergey said...

Jesse, at your level of competence I am sure that you can comfortably play online 15/30 and anything below it (and probably above as well). Provided that you have the roll of live 40 games, roll should not be an issue. Why 2/4 and 3/6 ?

Patrick said...

Sergey, I am guessing you have very little experience in online poker, and if you do, it is not recent. At 15/30, you are playing against the best of the best of lhe players in the world. Not many games above 30/60 go regularly, so even the best are playing 15/30 and 10/20 to get action.

2/4 and 3/6 online is likely much tougher than most if not all 20/40 live games, but with not nearly the swings as live. Someone who 4 tables these games online can likely make $20-$30 an hour after rakeback and bonuses, without enduring $1k-$2k daily swings.

jesse8888 said...

You basically nailed it Patrick. Sergey, I am definitely not qualified to play 15/30 online. Honestly 3/6 6max is a bit of a stretch, and 5/T 6max is most assuredly above my pay grade. For right now I'm sorta seeing how things go and getting a feel for it. Obviously the plan isn't to continue slumming it at 2/4 and 3/6 for very long, but that wasn't the plan with live 20/40 either.

Sergey said...

Hey Patrick and Jesse,
actually I am quite experienced with online poker and my experience is recent. I play semi-professionally (meaning that I have a day job but I log a lot of hands). I specialize on HU limit up to 10/20 and beat it at 4BB/100 FWIW. At full ring and 6m games I play between 5/10 and 15/30 and break even. I am by far don't belong to best players in the world group :) And I am also sure that Jesse is a better player than I am. With game selection and comfortable roll, I can't see a reason why a player like Jesse wouldn't play 10/20. Especially on "fishy" sites like AP. My 2c.