Monday, November 26, 2012
Well Allow Me to Retort
1)Are you sure you aren't playing at a 3-6 game?
2)So you are playing against the LA's tightest 3-bettor. So how do you barrel the 2nd time on the turn, given your behind her range? [you are ahead AQx, AJs (18 hands)],[you are chopping with AKx (12 hands)], and behind [JJ, QQ, KK AA? (24 hands)]
First of all no, I'm not playing in a 3-6 game but sometimes it definitely feels like it. The CO in the hand is definitely a special player even in a special game. Second of all there are a few good reasons to bet the turn. First of all I assume you're suggesting that I check and call instead, but there really isn't a good reason to do that. If I get raised here (which is almost never going to happen) I can just ship my hand to muck immediately, as I'll be drawing dead or very close to it, so it costs me the same bet and I forfeit very little (if any) river equity. Also in a spot like this I don't have a screw play range (and my bad opponents probably assume that), so checking turns my hand almost face up. Another reason is that all kinds of good things still happen if I bet. AQ and AJ have 3 outs to win and 4 more to chop; folding them out is just nice. I could have a mis-read on a preflop range. Someone could fold a small pair (it happens). The button could have the full 6 outs quite easily (with the JTs) and I definitely want that hand to fold. And even I didn't know that the CO wouldn't raise a hand as strong as the wired pair of jacks here even once post flop.
Also your combo counting is wrong. I have an ace and a king, which drops the AA and KK combos from 6 to 3. Obviously it also reduces the AQ combos from 16 to 12, but you get the idea. She never has AA or KK here once she doesn't raise the flop, and I assumed she couldn't have the QQ either and would have discounted JJ substantially and TT a little. So all of a sudden it feels like I have them obliterated.