Most of my days are pretty much the same. I wake up, get myself ready for the day (I eat, take care of the dogs, sometimes I work out either at home or on the way in), play poker for 5-8 hours, then do something in the evening to try to not think about poker. Also at some point I try to read two plus two, in an effort to learn something. This last week, however, my days were much less interesting, as I had the flu (not H1N1, just the regular old kick you in the ass flu) and didn't play a single live hand from Sunday night until Thursday morning. Even sequestered in my apartment, avoiding all possible human contact and wishing only for my temperature to drop back to double digits, I managed to learn things at an astounding rate. Here now I will present to you the knowledge that I have gained since I woke up Monday morning with a fever of 102.5.
Peyton Manning Will Kill You
Just do not bet against this man unless you're laying him a ton of points that he doesn't care about. He's gonna win the damn game. Danielle asked me when I got home Sunday "so how was the Pats Colts game" since she'd been recording it and I responded "Pats won by 2 or 3 touchdowns I stopped watching". Way to go Jesse, way to go. Danielle deleted the game from the DVR and was none to thrilled the next day.
Various Steven Seagal Tidbits
Now, don't feel bad if you already know some of this stuff. Knowing all of it might mean you have a problem, but if you only know a few of these things you should be fine. First of all, TNT seems to show a Steven Seagal movie every day, promptly at noon. Monday's offering was "Belly of the Beast", followed by Tuesday's "Today You Die" and Wednesday's "Urban Justice." I am ashamed to admit that I did actually watch the first two of these films and almost tuned into the third just to see if I could accurately predict every single thing that would happen during the next sequence of the movie during each commercial break (instead I watched 5 hours of the History Channel's "WWII in HD", which while good is decidedly not in HD). On Monday I had a pretty good excuse; I didn't even make it outside to get my laptop from the trunk of my car. Tuesday is harder to explain away. Anyways, the next thing I learned from this was the simple fact that "Holy shit Steven Seagal is still actively making movies!" This is an unassailable true fact. The man is making 2-4 crappy kung fu movies every year and still going strong. Do these movies get to theaters? They can't possibly! Even "Under Siege" wasn't that good, and it represented the zenith of his career. In 1992! I also learned all about the basic plot line and characters of any Steven Seagal movie. First, he plays a spiritual bad ass who, despite being 40 pounds over weight, is faster than a shaved rabbit/panther with turbines thingie and can break your leg in 407 different ways (approximately 200 of which you will see during any given movie). There are always monks, nuns, or voodoo priests involved at some level, and they usually get into it with each other, with the good monks all praying really hard and in unison to stave off the pin pricks of the bad-ass voodoo guy. There is of course a love interest, and the only requirements for here are that she is not white and cannot act. At all. He will have a partner throughout the movie, and this character will also typically be brown-skinned and not exactly Tom Hanks. Moving on to the actual plot; there is none. At the beginning somebody will fuck him over and you'll be pretty sure who did it. He'll probably end up in jail, at which point he'll start killing people. Then, for the next 90 minutes he will randomly kill more people. Who will he kill next? There's no point trying to guess, because they won't even bother to tell you how HE knows who he's supposed to kill next. He'll just show up at a house and start killing people. Why is he there? Left as an exercise to the viewer. Will he have a gun? Sometimes, but it really doesn't matter. He is never outmatched. 14 guys with automatic shotguns? No match for Steven Seagal and a single pool cue! 6 guys with swords? He'll kill them all with his shoe. Tanks and armored vehicles surrounding the house? He'll leave his brown partner downstairs to kill them all while he fights, mano a mano, upstairs with the head bad guy, winning when he actually chops the wooden arrow that's been fired at his chest in half with a samurai sword. You can't make this shit up, people. Unless, of course, you're Steven Seagal. Then you're making more of this shit up even as we speak.
Japan Took Over Alaska
OK that's not really true, but they did take over a couple of Alaskan islands early in WWII. I had been under the mistaken impression that nobody had ever seized control of any US held territory at any point in human history. How did the United States Army wrest back control of the island? We sent in Steven Seagal, of course. He killed 2000 Japanese soldiers with a single can of PBR. Game over.
I Am Awesome at Wii Mariokart
There's really not a lot to this one. I kick ass. I'll kick your ass if you want.
Fevers May or May Not Help Your Body Fight Infection
According to leo doc, who is in fact a doctor, fevers do nothing to help your body fight infection. According to lots of other sources throughout the interwebs, fevers do help your body fight infection. OK actually I didn't learn anything here, other than the fact that having a temperature in the 102s for 36 hours really freaking sucks and at least one really smart guy is sure that the fever is doing nothing but make me miserable and that I should just take as much Tylenol as my liver can safely handle to get my thermostat back to 98.something.
The Police Department is Like the DMV, Except Not Everyone Inside Could Pass A Driving Test
Why did I spend an hour inside the SJPD yesterday evening? Because there is a giant scam going on whereby Bay 101 and Garden City can only hire people who pass a certain set of requirements set forth by said Police Department. For the right to be vetted as having passed these requirements, one must show up at the station, sit around for a while, then have his picture, finger prints, and $385 taken. Oh, but why did specifically I have to do this? It's basically public knowledge already, so here is the official announcement. I have jumped through 8 of the about 10 hoops required to become a prop player at Garden City and should have a badge in "2-3 weeks...after they do the background check." How that can take 2-3 weeks is beyond comprehension. Probably sometime in January I'll be Garden City's newest 40/80 prop player. In a way this makes me feel like I have failed, but it's too much money to pass up given how poorly the last six (6) months have gone.
2012 Is a Truly Terrible Movie
As an aside, I've also learned that I have very bad taste in movies when I'm sick.....Yesterday I found myself in the Garden City 20/40 game at 12:15 PM, unable to see straight or string together two coherent thoughts, but having to be at the SJPD with the paperwork I'd just gotten notarized at 5pm. I had 3 choices: play on, drive home and sit on the couch for three hours then drive back, or go watch a movie. Turned out that 2012 was playing at a theater nearby, had an appropriate start time (which is to say, very soon), was longish, and was on the list of movies that I'd consider seeing but Danielle had no interest in. So in short, I was working with a pretty short deck here.
Just wow was this movie terrible. I've put some thought into this and I think it's the worst movie that I've ever bought a ticket for....awe crap. I just remembered "The Talented Mr. Ripley" which was probably worse. But anyway, it definitely gets mentioned. The basic premise (Spoiler alert) is that the sun is having more and more solar flares and that the nutrino particles it's bombarding us with are actually starting to melt the Earth's core. Eventually everything will melt the tectonic plates will just slide around all willy nilly and basically "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" The government knows about this because some super smart guy in India figured it out and another black dude came back and told them, so Danny Glover (the president) puts a plan in action to save humanity. The rest of the movie involved John Cusack leading his kids, ex-wife, her new husband, Russian billionaire boss, his kids and bimbo girlfriend all over the globe, repeatedly taking off from airstrips as they crumble behind him or are bombarded with volcanic debris (as an aside, Woody Harrelson's character was a rare bright spot). Eventually they get to China, which is apparently where the leaders of the world decided to build 10 big ass arks. There is even a gratuitous shot of helicopter's flying in a pair of giraffes. Except, what's this?! Only four of the arks are finished in time? Oh no! See, the government sold tickets for $1B Euros a head for seats on these arks (it is never mentioned what becomes of the 60% of the people who don't have seats...they just don't show up for some reason as the world explodes around them) to fund the project, so basically 400,000 super rich people show up in private planes (somehow in the middle of the Himalayas). But wait, there's more! One of the "finished" arks is damaged. The Russian billionaire is screwed! Then John Cusack and the rest of his motley crew sneak onto the ark (thanks to the brother of the guy who played Steven Seagal's partner in Belly of the Beast who worked on the thing as a welder) but in the process damage "the gate", which is like a giant drawbridge of a medieval castle.
At this point the people on the ark have a crisis. The smart black scientist argues that they must let the people outside come onto the ark, capacity be damned! Keep in mind that the 100,000 people outside are just the people who bought tickets to the other broken ark, not like the several billion people who are already dead. The tsunami is coming in 15 minutes! Hurry up! They open the gate and of course it won't close because John Cusack's ex-wifes' dead husbands body is all jammed up in the gears (that was kind of cool) and the ark starts taking on water as the tsunami hits (in the meanwhile the Russian billionaire fell to his death during the act of throwing his sun onto the ark). Of course John Cusack saves the day, fixing the gears, while underwater, and everyone, except, you know, 6.9996 billion people who died, lives happily ever after.
So what have I really learned? I should have gotten a flu shot.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Eventually You Will See Everything
Lots of people think online poker is rigged. They think that people are colluding in teams to whipsaw innocent bystanders out of pots (possible), that some accounts can see the hole cards of other players (did happen), that some accounts know what board cards are coming (pretty sure this is impossible because sites use continuous shuffling), or that sites actually go so far as to rig the cards in order to make pots bigger and therefore generate more rake (simply absurd). The argument for this last point is that "you see horrible beats all the time, there's just no way that should happen that often." The counter-argument to that is that you see so many more hands online (I know guys that 8 table short handed games, playing close to 1000 hands an hour....I'm lucky if I play 1500 hands a week) that you'll see beats more frequently.
In the last week I have seem some pretty serious shit from a probabilistic point of view. I saw MG go all in on the flop and turn over AA on a board of A84-8-J. As he's tabling his hand with that weird MG grin on his face the other guy with a hand can only muster "believe it or not, that's no good" while tabling quad 8s. How often should aces full run into quads? I don't really want to figure it out because I am close to end-stage food coma right now (when going out to dinner with Danielle you will inevitably hear these words...."I wish we'd just split something, I'm so full I'm going to explode. Can I see the dessert menu? Yes I'll have the mud pie cake with oreo shell the size of a cantaloupe." Yet somehow I'm the one toeing the obesity line, with a BMI of 28.2, while she could comfortable fit down one leg of the jeans I have from high school that I keep dreaming someday I'll be able to wear again) but it can't be often. I heard stories (corroborated by multiple sources) that a certain human being lost 17 racks of chips in the Garden City 40/80 half kill game. That's 17 racks of chips. 1700 individual chips. Worth $10 each. Have you ever had 1700 of something? That's 3400 foot long subway sandwiches. That's enough money to go on Jared's diet for nearly a decade. Sure, most of the play was 4-handed against tough, aggressive biggish game regulars. But this has to be like a 4 or 5 sigma event. But I don't know, I've heard about such a 17 rack loss twice now, the other being in a 3 chip 6 chip game, so I don't know.
And finally, I saw Hammerin Hank flop a royal flush. He raised under the gun and got a couple of cold calls from late position, then checked the QJT all clubs flop. His female opponent bet, a megafish called, and he check/raised. Already alarm bells were going off in my head that something was up. What hand would Hank check/raise with here? Just monsters....and on that board, what monsters are there that he'd raise under the gun with? The woman called and the fish folded after what seemed like 2 minutes of thought. A 4th club hit on the turn and Hank led out. The woman folded, and Hank looked distraught. "He flopped a royal flush!" I cried out and Hank tabled the goods for good measure. A bru-haha ensued and Steve the floor man was alerted that Hank deserved some sort of jackpot bonus for flopping a royal. 10 minutes later he returned.
"Ladies and gentleman, our good friend Hank just flopped a royal flush, and has won the following collection of prizes"
"Bay 101 stationary"
1 by 1.5 inch post-it note used for seat change lists.
"Bay 101 pen"
A pen
"Bay 101 lighter"
A pack of matches
"Bay 101 h'ourderve"
A packet of jelly.
"Bay 101 facial"
A hand wipe.
"And Bay 101 flatware"
Disposable chopsticks.
With great flourish Steve tossed each object to Hank, and there was much rejoicing. Afterward he lamented "It was close, we were out of h'ourderves so I had to go to the back and get this one." This got me to thinking, "How rare of an event is this?" Here's the math:
If I play 40 hours a week 50 weeks a year, I will play 2000 hours a year. Assuming I see 40 hands an hour, thats 80,000 hands a year. The chances of flopping a royal flush (making a royal with 5 cards) are about 1 in 650,000.
4 possible royals / (52 choose 5) possible five card hands.
4/(52!/(47! * 5!))
Trust me....that's about what it is. If you see every flop with every suited broadway combo (which is far from true...I folded one yesterday and should have folded another today) you'd flop a royal once every 8 years if you played 40 hours a week. So for government work, which is all we're striving for here, once a decade is a good estimate. Now that's rare.
In the last week I have seem some pretty serious shit from a probabilistic point of view. I saw MG go all in on the flop and turn over AA on a board of A84-8-J. As he's tabling his hand with that weird MG grin on his face the other guy with a hand can only muster "believe it or not, that's no good" while tabling quad 8s. How often should aces full run into quads? I don't really want to figure it out because I am close to end-stage food coma right now (when going out to dinner with Danielle you will inevitably hear these words...."I wish we'd just split something, I'm so full I'm going to explode. Can I see the dessert menu? Yes I'll have the mud pie cake with oreo shell the size of a cantaloupe." Yet somehow I'm the one toeing the obesity line, with a BMI of 28.2, while she could comfortable fit down one leg of the jeans I have from high school that I keep dreaming someday I'll be able to wear again) but it can't be often. I heard stories (corroborated by multiple sources) that a certain human being lost 17 racks of chips in the Garden City 40/80 half kill game. That's 17 racks of chips. 1700 individual chips. Worth $10 each. Have you ever had 1700 of something? That's 3400 foot long subway sandwiches. That's enough money to go on Jared's diet for nearly a decade. Sure, most of the play was 4-handed against tough, aggressive biggish game regulars. But this has to be like a 4 or 5 sigma event. But I don't know, I've heard about such a 17 rack loss twice now, the other being in a 3 chip 6 chip game, so I don't know.
And finally, I saw Hammerin Hank flop a royal flush. He raised under the gun and got a couple of cold calls from late position, then checked the QJT all clubs flop. His female opponent bet, a megafish called, and he check/raised. Already alarm bells were going off in my head that something was up. What hand would Hank check/raise with here? Just monsters....and on that board, what monsters are there that he'd raise under the gun with? The woman called and the fish folded after what seemed like 2 minutes of thought. A 4th club hit on the turn and Hank led out. The woman folded, and Hank looked distraught. "He flopped a royal flush!" I cried out and Hank tabled the goods for good measure. A bru-haha ensued and Steve the floor man was alerted that Hank deserved some sort of jackpot bonus for flopping a royal. 10 minutes later he returned.
"Ladies and gentleman, our good friend Hank just flopped a royal flush, and has won the following collection of prizes"
"Bay 101 stationary"
1 by 1.5 inch post-it note used for seat change lists.
"Bay 101 pen"
A pen
"Bay 101 lighter"
A pack of matches
"Bay 101 h'ourderve"
A packet of jelly.
"Bay 101 facial"
A hand wipe.
"And Bay 101 flatware"
Disposable chopsticks.
With great flourish Steve tossed each object to Hank, and there was much rejoicing. Afterward he lamented "It was close, we were out of h'ourderves so I had to go to the back and get this one." This got me to thinking, "How rare of an event is this?" Here's the math:
If I play 40 hours a week 50 weeks a year, I will play 2000 hours a year. Assuming I see 40 hands an hour, thats 80,000 hands a year. The chances of flopping a royal flush (making a royal with 5 cards) are about 1 in 650,000.
4 possible royals / (52 choose 5) possible five card hands.
4/(52!/(47! * 5!))
Trust me....that's about what it is. If you see every flop with every suited broadway combo (which is far from true...I folded one yesterday and should have folded another today) you'd flop a royal once every 8 years if you played 40 hours a week. So for government work, which is all we're striving for here, once a decade is a good estimate. Now that's rare.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Just an Update I Guess
I've actually won 3 days in a row, which has been very nice. Today I took a few brutal beats (I managed to flop T77r and lose with A7s, for example) but in general things went pretty well and I took home two more racks than I brought with me. I also had a long talk with Babar (instigated entirely by him) in which he encouraged me to work on the mental aspects of my game, perhaps seek some coaching, and in general to not be too alarmed that things haven't been working out so well the past 5 months. The talk made me think about a lot of things and also gave my confidence a shot in the arm, as he forced me to go through the exercise of generating a life time graph. The thing didn't look nearly as bad as I'd feared it might, and seeing all those wins really made me remember that I have crushed these games and, as far as I know, haven't suffered any brain damage recently. The wins will come, and once they do I'll be even stronger mentally than I was before. Thanks Babar.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Oaks 15 LDO
I 3-bet JJ red. 7 way surprisingly tight.
964hh
They check to me and I bet cause I has pear. Three (3) call and a c/r from a limper. I 3 bet and all 3 limpers fold. If he has a draw a draw I just owned him.
Jc
He checks and calls.
3h
He donks I call T2hh good sir. Upon comment I concur: "totally standard"
964hh
They check to me and I bet cause I has pear. Three (3) call and a c/r from a limper. I 3 bet and all 3 limpers fold. If he has a draw a draw I just owned him.
Jc
He checks and calls.
3h
He donks I call T2hh good sir. Upon comment I concur: "totally standard"
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Get a Load of This
Live action blogging once more. Today's action finds our young hero once again stuck 3 racks after a 3 hour stint in the Jesus seat of the Neal game.
A terrible fish limps in middle position. I limp the button with J9hh. Trust me...it's FINE. Blinds call 4 ways for the spectacle that is my life.
J82 rainbow with one heart
Blinds check and the fish bets. Let's pause here and check his hole cards:
77, black
OK, that's not that terrible so far. He should raise preflop but betting here 3rd to act is correct by a landslide. He does afterall have a pair.
I raise and the blinds fold. Now at this point my opponent can pretty safely muck. There is no draw other than T9, and I'd never raise out the blinds with that hand. Actually my raise here is super exploitable, but since my opponents don't even know what that word means, let alone how to take advantage of it (fold) it's fine. He calls.
J82-7 two hearts now
That's not an asshole card. I don't know what it is, but it's beyond asshole. After the hand Omar (the BB) informs me that he folded a 7, so we are looking at an old-fashioned 1-Outter. Back to the action, wherein my opponent donks. I am stunned, sure I'm beat, but hopelessly tied to the pot. I have a flush draw and a gutshot in a 5-bet pot. So I call. Wait for it....
J82-7-9 no flush obviously
At this point the poker gods have constructed one last smoting, dropping a card that makes my opponent check! He can't have the straight and I have top two! I bet and he turbo calls obviously, and I am spared no dignity. I have poker nightmares that don't go this poorly.
A terrible fish limps in middle position. I limp the button with J9hh. Trust me...it's FINE. Blinds call 4 ways for the spectacle that is my life.
J82 rainbow with one heart
Blinds check and the fish bets. Let's pause here and check his hole cards:
77, black
OK, that's not that terrible so far. He should raise preflop but betting here 3rd to act is correct by a landslide. He does afterall have a pair.
I raise and the blinds fold. Now at this point my opponent can pretty safely muck. There is no draw other than T9, and I'd never raise out the blinds with that hand. Actually my raise here is super exploitable, but since my opponents don't even know what that word means, let alone how to take advantage of it (fold) it's fine. He calls.
J82-7 two hearts now
That's not an asshole card. I don't know what it is, but it's beyond asshole. After the hand Omar (the BB) informs me that he folded a 7, so we are looking at an old-fashioned 1-Outter. Back to the action, wherein my opponent donks. I am stunned, sure I'm beat, but hopelessly tied to the pot. I have a flush draw and a gutshot in a 5-bet pot. So I call. Wait for it....
J82-7-9 no flush obviously
At this point the poker gods have constructed one last smoting, dropping a card that makes my opponent check! He can't have the straight and I have top two! I bet and he turbo calls obviously, and I am spared no dignity. I have poker nightmares that don't go this poorly.
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