Friday, December 5, 2014

534 954 34665

Anybody care to guess what those numbers are? In order they are the number of hours I have played, the number of bets I have won, and the number of dollars I have won (obviously not a super great Run Good Ratio, since the lowest I ever play is 20/40) in the calendar year 2014.  Some other things have not gone very well (every person I stake just torches my money with impunity) so the year actually hasn't been that awesome, but I mean really.....are you kidding me?

Obviously I'm running super hot (that win rate cannot be sustainable), but at the same time I know for a fact that I am playing better in better games a much higher percentage of the time.  Back when I was a full-time pro I was routinely in situations where I felt I had to grind out a few more hours either because I hadn't played enough or was waiting out traffic or whatever.  I don't do that shit anymore.  If the game is bad or full of douche bags or I'm just not in the mood to play I simply quit.  And at the other end, I NEVER have to quit an amazing game to go spend time with Danielle.  The best game tend to break out Friday/Saturday/Sunday from 4pm to midnight (for obvious reasons) and those were times I almost NEVER got to play before.  Now?  I've had some 30 hour commerce weekends where I was just in unreal games the whole time.

There are some other factors at play.  I'm pretty much always sharp and always WANT to be there when I go play.  I am completely fearless now in every single game I play (which for some people would probably be bad but was definitely a detriment to my success previously).  And from a technical point of view I've spent a lot of hours in a half kill game, so the true bets/hour number is slightly skewed, and I am generally playing small games (very little merce 40+) which are just....so....soft.  So I mean...yes I'm running super hot, but there are also a lot of valid reasons that my win-rate could and probably should be more than the .6 bets per hour or whatever I averaged over the course of my professional career.  Obviously it's not even close to 1.8, but is it 1.0?  1.3?  I don't know, but I'm guessing somewhere in there.  Johnny Baseball said something to me that was actually shared by I think Mitchman a while ago, and I think he was right.  When the game is good it's WAY better than you think, and when the game is bad it's WAY worse than you think.  If on average you're a 1 bet per hour winner, you're not 1.3 bets in good games and .7 bets in bad games.  It's more like 2.5 bets good games and break even in bad ones.  I think that's something everyone should really keep in mind.

2 comments:

Dan said...

I need to read this again when I sit down at a bad table and refuse to get up because "I want to challenge myself/I still have an edge/I'll get more hands per hour". Great reminder that if you play to make money and you've got a big enough player pool, get the hell up and find another table to sit at.

Jesse Smithnosky said...

or just go home!