Sunday, April 18, 2010

Now That's a Beat

Things went really well last week, right up until yesterday. I went to commerce for about a 7 hour session and at one point was down to about $250 on the table. My current model is to bring $2K to the casino and not post with less than $300, so I essentially got down to the felt. That very orbit however I won a massive pot with jacks, and managed to stick out the rest of the session and only lose about 3 racks. I know I know I should bring enough money not to worry about things but I've decided that once I'm that far under I no longer play well so I'd rather just force myself to make good quits. How did I get stuck so badly? This hand certainly didn't help.

As I've probably mentioned the worst beat you can take in texas hold 'em is a 989 : 1 shot, where in your opponent has no back door draws (neither flush nor straight) and needs to hit not one but two perfect running cards to beat you. As an example, if you held KK on a flop of K72r and your opponent held JJ, he would need to hit both remaining jacks to defeat you. I don't recall ever actually taking this beat (WTK once sort of put it on me, but he had also flopped a simple gut shot making it far less of a long shot), which if correct is actually pretty lucky on my part. I don't think I've played a million hands in my life, but to be honest it's probably close (counting all the hands I logged playing sit n goes and at the 2/4 tables at foxwoods and everything in between). Yesterday, however, I took what I think is the second worst beat in texas hold 'em.

I raised a limper with A9s from about the lowjack and got called by the button and the big blind. Four of us saw the flop of:

A96ddh

My cards were clubs, so not a back door draw in sight, but hey top two's not bad right? I bet and got two calls, from the limper and the big blind.

A96ddh-Jh

They both checked to me and I bet. The big blind raised, the limper cleared out, and I had a decision to make. Obviously folding is out of the question, but should I raise again? The only hands I realistically lose to are AJ, a slow played set of 9s or 6s, or somehow JJ. AJ doesn't make much sense from the action so far, and neither does JJ. 9s are pretty tough, since I can see 2 of them, leaving exactly 1 hand combo. 66 is a real possibility, as most players would take exactly this line with it, but that's poker. I also beat a slew of one pair plus flush draw hands (that he could play this way), naked flush draws he's trying to bluff with (unlikely but possible), and straight flush combo draws (T8hh for example) and almost all of the two pair hands, all of which are in play since my opponent called in the big blind in what figured to be a 4 way pot. J6 needs to be discounted, but even I'd have played it suited and this is a random commerce blind defender!

So I 3-bet and he called grudgingly. Sadly his lack of a raise doesn't even mean I'm good. A player here with 66 or AJ might not even 4-bet. I think by now we all know what's coming on the river:

A96ddh-Jh-Jc

He donks. I call, and he shows me the J9 of spades in all it's glory. Here you have it, I manage to lose what is eventually a $500+ dollar pot in which I at one point had 99.7% equity.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=7245170 
pokenum  -h ac 9c  - js 9s  -- ad 9d 6h  Holdem Hi: 
990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9d 6h cards  
win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV 
Ac 9c  987  99.70     3   0.30    0  0.00  0.997 
Js 9s    3   0.30   987  99.70    0  0.00  0.003

4 comments:

DK said...

Funny you mention this hand. Yesterday, punished villian's J9o w/ my A9s on a AJ9 flop and the case 9 on the turn. I guess the poker gods even things out across the poker universe:)
Took a similar beat to yours on an online tourney. Where I have 44 on a 433 flop. Villian bet/shoves AKs on the flop (no flush draw) and it comes running Aces:( Got to love poker!

jesse8888 said...

The classy way to lose your hand is running 3s.

Lucas said...

I have the same exact stop-loss. If I manage to lose 50BB at 20/40 there is no way I am going to be playing well enough to be +EV.

d said...

whaaat? this has never happened to you before? happens to me like 3-5 times a day playing online (1-2 cash games along with 2-3 donkaments at a time, the latter is usually where it occurs)...obviously the cure for this is to play more online donkaments so you become immune