How Much Ya Wanna Bet?

This phrase tilts the living Bejesus out of me, and a fair number of you know exactly why. People who don't gamble for a living get this one wrong all the time; even really, really smart people. How much you'd be willing to bet on a certain thing isn't the real defining measure of how sure you are of it's truth. The odds you'd be willing to lay are. Just last night Danielle and I were out to a fancy dinner at this high end establishment (to be quite honest the pizza was pretty good, and the 30 or so odd tokens I found in my drawer bought quite a bit of skee ball, pop a shot, and Mario Kart) and she said to me "How much would you bet we're the only party here without any kids?" I just kind of laughed at first, then realized that was rude and explained to her how exactly I'd think about the problem.

1. Define kid. Later in the evening we realized there was a serious edge case; 17 year old couples. Do they count as kids? In the spirit of the rule, no. But maybe they were there with their parents and siblings and were actually 15. We'd need a definition of both kid and party before such a bet could be undertaken. Let's go with the loosest definition of party (just people who met, not necessarily came in the same car) and kid (anyone under the age of 18).

2. After that, I wouldn't think about it in terms of how much I'd be willing to bet. I'd think about it in terms of trying to determine what I thought a fair price was (just glancing around the restaurant I thought a fair price was something like 9:1 against there being another kidless party).

Proud of myself for explaining something, I sat back and sipped on my caffeine free diet pepsi (partyer that I am). Danielle simply restated her question, as is her custom and that of some other intelligent people I know after someone has explained that a problem is a lot deeper than what she originally posed, but also still very answerable. I thought about trying to discuss it in terms of the Kelley Criterion, but I assume that would have to be flawed as this is obviously an edge case. The answer to such a question relies on many things, all of which are inherit to a given person and therefore likely can't be decided with a formula:

1. How much money do you have?

2. How much money do you make?

3. How safe is that income stream?

4. How much money do you spend? Could you reduce it?

5. Will you kill yourself if you lose a certain number of dollars?

6. How old are you?

After thinking about these questions, and declaring that I thought the fair price of the bet was something like 9:1, I asked Danielle how much she would bet at even odds that we were in fact the only kidless party at the fine eatery. Her immediate response was....$500. I restated the question and this time told her not that I felt the odds were 9:1, that they actually were...simplifying the problem. You have an event that will happen with 90% certainty, and someone is willing to give you unlimited action at even money that it will not. How much will you bet? I managed to get her to say $5000, but that was as high as she'd go. Now I'm not going to go into her personal finances at any length here, but she does work at Google. That is all.

She wanted to know what my answer was, and after a few seconds of reflection I responded "I think all of it." She was stunned. Now I have money in a Roth IRA, and she argued that it's tax sheltered status meant I should never touch it, not even with a 90% chance of doubling it. And she might be right, I suppose. 30 years of untaxed growth is nothing to sneeze at. And I don't have a job, so betting every penny I could get my hands on would be perhaps a little silly. But even so, I think my personal answer is "the vast majority of my liquidatable net worth," and some of my answers to the questions above are decided "wrong." I don't have a job, and my income stream isn't very safe, specifically. Were I in her situation, I literally think I might bet every penny I could get my hands on.

So anyway, I thought that was interesting, and am curious as to what other people think. How much of your net worth would you bet at even money on a 9:1 favorite?

Jimmy V's Espy Speech

I think everyone should watch this speech at least once. It will make you laugh, make you think, and maybe even make you cry. I'm not really sure why I like it so much, but I think maybe because it reminds me that passion and emotion are parts of the human condition to be embraced, not ones we fight to restrain and control as we move through the world.

Softball is Back

Or I should say more accurately, I am back at softball. I played a fair bit in the Bay Area, for at least 5 or so different teams, at the end under the watchful eyes of coach (who is an interesting poker player indeed, playing as high as 30/60 online but as of yet unable to win at live 20/40 and therefore spending time playing in green chip games to this day....obviously his 20/40 losses can be attributed to run bad, and his existence makes me feel better about my own). Anyway, coach had been at it for like over a decade, and would send out email recaps of the games, routinely with a note that someone was approaching some season or career record, such as 500 hits or some other redonkulous total. You see in California you can play softball literally like 9 or even 12 months a year, and if you play 10 games per season and 4 seasons per year....well all of a sudden 500 hits doesn't seem like that many. As an aside I introduced coach to a couple of his current players, including his current star pitcher who routinely has 4 for 5 with 2 doubles and a dinger type nights.

Anyway I finally got off my ass down here and started playing softball two weeks ago. Why did it take me a full year? Well, there are a few reasons. First of all I'm pretty darn lazy. Second of all, it's hard to find a softball team to play for when you literally don't know a single person who, you know, plays softball. And finally I was hesitant because to be honest I'm not that good. I played baseball for 10 years growing up and was quite good right up until the point that I stopped growing and was no longer the biggest kid on the team (age 13 to be precise). The problem was that I am a natural second basemen....which is to say I am a presentable infielder with silly puddy where my right arm should be. I also have never really figured out exactly how to hit a softball, and certainly can't hit for enough power to knock the ball over the outfielders heads (in softball there are 3 kinds of hits....line drives over the infielders heads, home runs over the outfielders heads, and lucky ones).

So far I've played three games, the first as a sub, the second as a now full time player for that team, and the third just tonight as a sub again. My first game was...just...awful. I left 5 men on base. In the first two innings. I went 1 for 4. I made a mess of second base. I didn't know which side of the plate to hit from (I'm right handed, but spent most of my baseball career swinging from the left side, which enabled me to actually stand a chance at hitting a curve ball. But hitting right handed still feels a little more natural). And to boot, after finally getting a hit in the bottom of the last inning to knock in the tying run with 1 out, I managed to get called out at first base for taking an early lead (before the pitcher released the ball). The batter promptly grounded out to short and the man on 3rd obviously didn't score and the game ended...in a tie.

So after that piss poor performance I figured I was done with it. I wasn't going to go out of my way to play with anybody else, and that team certainly wasn't going to call me back for another go, so that was that. But lo and behold the moonshiners wanted me back the following week, and even asked me to join the team permanently. So I figured what the hell, it can't get any worse, right? Wrong. In my first at bat I strike out....looking. You start with a 1-1 count (standard) and any pitch of reasonable height that hits the rubber mat behind the plate is a strike. That much I knew. What I did not know, however, was that any ball that landed on the plate was also a strike. That is decidedly non-standard. So I took a pitch that landed honestly about an inch in front of the plate or maybe just barely landed on it and boom the ump in ringing me up and well it's just not good. So at this point things were not looking good, but I managed to turn it around by hitting solidly left handed and taking advantage of a second basemen with roughly the same UZR as a barca lounger. I finished the game with a walk and 2 singles, both of which were line drives past the aforementioned piece of furniture standing between first and second base, and the moonshiners claimed glorious victory by way of a mid-inning (the top of the middle of an inning no less) mercy rule invocation (humorously the mercy rule run was scored by the 2nd man on base when our clean up guy hit a towering blast over the left fielders head. He cruised from second base on and eventually was struck directly in the ass by the ball sailing in from third base in an effort to score a run which did not even count). So that was good.

And tonight I got a text around 5:15 asking if I could fill in for another team and I did so admirably, making no idiotic plays in right or right center and going 3 for 4 with a triple. You see, everyone else on the team was capable of knocking the ball over the outfielders heads, so they had to play way back. So my first two at bats I lulled them into....who am I kidding I grounded into a double play and hit a soft liner over the second basemen's head. So anyway after that they played me in and I smacked one over their heads and, am told, downshifted not one but two gears while rounding third base and was promptly thrown out at the plate to end the inning, with the ump helping me up saying "sorry man, that was a hell of a throw". But it was fun and we won, so it's all good, and I'm actually looking forward to playing tomorrow for my "real" team and the like.

ORLY?

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1181613
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with J T
2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (6 SB) T J 6 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps!, BB calls, Hero calls

Turn: (9 BB) 5 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB caps!, Hero calls, SB calls

River: (21 BB) 5 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, SB caps!, BB calls

Final Pot: 30 BB
SB shows A 5 (three of a kind, Fives)
BB shows T T (a full house, Tens full of Fives)
BB wins 29.25 BB
(Rake: $3.00)

I played this hand on full tilt just now and have to say....orly? Let's take a look at the lines here. Now admittedly really the only thing the BB did wrong was not 3 bet preflop. After that he just went directly to batshit, did not pass go, and eventually collected like literally close to $200. But the small blind...what on earth are you doing man? OK you put in the spew cap on the flop with the flush draw. Fine, I can get behind that. But the turn and river? Seriously? I had to give the guy a new color after this one.

Things have been going pretty horribly online lately, with me losing 210 bets over the course of just 3000 hands in the past week or so. I guess that type of shit happens all the time, but coupled with the fact that I'm simply not allowed to win at 5/T and it's just gotten kind of old. All in all since I started taking the online pokers very seriously again on November 1st I've played 74K hands and won 650 bets, so I can't really complain. But those 650 bets are only a total of about $2000, which obviously means...well, you know what it means. I just don't get to win at 3/6 (I break even) and I lose horrendously at 5/T (with a very small sample size). Ah well, gotta keep trucking.

Live poker, on the other hand, is going just fine. Total earnings for the year have already passed into the five figure range, and I'm consistently finding myself in just amazing spots. The Commerce 40 shot is afoot, I promise.

And finally....I'm going to organize a poker bowling group, based on inspiration from a friend I met just this week in my live games who asked "are you the Jesse I think you are?". Let me know if you're interested, my plan is to run it somewhat loosely like a league, but really just pick up teams every time we play and gamble appropriately on the outcome.

There's a Straight on Board!

Today was one of those days that started of fantastically well, with me happy to be alive and feeling just wonderful, and ended with me once again questioning what the fuck I'm doing. I woke up feeling refreshed and alert for once and promptly logged into FullTilt and found...well, basically it looked like this. Just action everywhere, all kinds of idiots in the 3/6 games, just freaking amazing. So I even decided to game start a full ring 2/4 because what the hell that's how you get better and everyone says I should do it so I've been doing it and I basically just get to OBLITERATE this guy (who was admittedly terrible) for like 60 hands. Apparently DougL actually was watching the match and later berated me for not having Skype open, which I will admit was a serious mistake on my part. So anyway, I played for an hour or more and despite making 1.7 pears per hand against that poor human was still somehow getting crushed, then eventually made like 3 full houses at the same time with AK (or something like that...it was really quite amazing) and called it a morning. Then I went to work out and lifted weights for the first time in a week and in general just felt awesome. Cue live poker.

Things are going alright, but the game is kind of crappy and I'm just sort of treading water. I win my post-in hand and another right away and am quickly up a rack. I order fruit, a bagel, and coffee for breakfast which does more for my self confidence. I listen to good music and everything is correct in the world and there's not a worry in my mind. Then I proceed to bleed off five racks of chips over the next 7 hours, taking all manner of preposterous beats, most of which aren't even worth discussing. Except for one.....

So there are two guys in my game who are just gambling it up, having a grand old time, becoming very friendly with each other really for no reason other than they are both young and white and retarded. In theory I should be friends with them also, but they are complete idiots and have no clue what they're doing so what am I going to do exactly there? Anyway, if you've played live poker you have a good sense of what's going on; the game has turned into a social event, with people laughing and having a good time, taking jabs at each other, just exactly what a poker game is supposed to be. And everyone is having a good time because I am personally losing about $10/minute at this point, ensuring that basically nobody else, other than the partier in seat 4, is stuck. He is playing all sorts of silly hands declaring it's his only way out, etc, etc, and his new buddy in seat 5 is playing along, 3 betting him mercilessly and the like. So like I said I'm just getting fucking destroyed, and the game has crossed over from "fun and gambly" to "out of control". Everyone is playing almost every hand for as many bets as requested (which is often 2 or 3) and all semblance of order and discipline has gone out the window. Then it happens. Seat 5 opens and seat 8 cold calls the button. I am in seat 1 and defends K8ss (I did successfully call seat 5 down with king high once today, but this was not to be the outcome of our fateful hand). The flop comes:

854ddh

And we proceed directly to batshit. I check, he bets, the button (who's a terrible fish) raises, I 3 bet and he immediately caps. The button calls and I call cause I mean....I know it's difficult to put them both on diamond draws, but you're gonna have to pry this one out of my cold dead hands. To the turn, which is a beaut:

854ddh-7h

I check, seat 5 bets, the button calls, and I tank to make sure I don't want to raise before calling. To the river:

854ddh-7h-6s

LOL OK not what I expected but whatever. I check...huge mistake. They both turbo check behind me and I table my hand instantly like it's the nuts (always do this when there is a straight on board and you're first to act if you have anything at all they could construe as a hand that beats theres) and it happens...seat 5 tanks. He looks at the board, he looks at his hand....the board...his hand....and then seat 4 says under his breath quietly seemingly so only seat 5 could here but seriously I'm not deaf "straight on board...there's a straight on board straight on board" and yet somehow seat 5 isn't hearing him (and later claims to have never heard him but bullshit I say bullshit) and eventually (after the dealer admonishes seat 4 that he's not supposed to say anything...twice) some light goes on inside that vacuous dome of a head of his and he turns over...JTdd. LOL fuck, OK fine. But wait....here's the best part. Seat 8 mucks! After all that, seat 8 is actually clueless enough to muck his hand!

I am beside myself and call the floor man over because I don't know what else to do....I don't really have an argument beyond "that guy is an asshole" but make it anyway, and the floor man agrees with me that he is in fact an asshole but can't really do anything about it. So I stack up my half of the pot and then it hits me....if seat 8 mucked...I was winning the whole pot before the river. After 4000 hours of live poker it's hard to believe you still see new depths of stupidity....but I mean, it's LA.