tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post3807825395725195190..comments2024-01-08T00:42:27.477-08:00Comments on Taking a Shot: p(busto)jesse8888http://www.blogger.com/profile/04372291760946904904noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-21161240977410294842010-03-08T22:48:39.790-08:002010-03-08T22:48:39.790-08:00you prolly don't need this, but maybe someone ...you prolly don't need this, but maybe someone finds it useful...<br />http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/<br /><br />Best of luck, whatever you decide, been following you for a while, would hate to see you go! And I don't even play limit!CThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03817594411005347295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-71679579007027489262010-03-06T08:35:06.293-08:002010-03-06T08:35:06.293-08:00Alternative Jesse gameplan, fwiw:
Take a break (...Alternative Jesse gameplan, fwiw:<br /> Take a break (temporary or otherwise) from LHE. With small part of the roll, play some live 1-2/2-5 NL. Cultivate a style that suits you (which may be diff from old aggro LHE persona). You can coldcall in NL w/o feeling wimpish. See cheap flops. Use those MIT smarts to read/outplay villains in more ways possible than in LHE. Give it a mini-shot. Still enjoying the blog, and wishing you renewed success.timilonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12188296373767330899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-53276885083590736282010-03-05T22:43:36.477-08:002010-03-05T22:43:36.477-08:00Yeah I know all that but having a little sub-routi...Yeah I know all that but having a little sub-routine where I can change all the parameters and see how it affects things is really helpful for me.jesse8888https://www.blogger.com/profile/04372291760946904904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-60171293231253964002010-03-05T19:06:32.851-08:002010-03-05T19:06:32.851-08:00Rearranging the terms of the equation, you can als...Rearranging the terms of the equation, you can also solve it for choosing an amount of risk you are acceptable taking, then what size bankroll would you need?<br /><br />Here's my matlab routine to figure that out, but from that you get the general idea.<br /><br />function y=risk_of_ruin(sd, hourly, risk)<br /><br />y = round(-(sd^2)/(2*hourly) * log(risk));Shamanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12987001120993043887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-37272086887540663402010-03-05T19:03:36.792-08:002010-03-05T19:03:36.792-08:00You don't need to right a simulation to figure...You don't need to right a simulation to figure this out. This is the very common risk of ruin scenario that you are considering, and the following formula is what your program will converge too assuming you simulate enough hours and there is not a bug.<br /><br />Risk of Ruin = e-2 x WR x BR ÷ (SD x SD)<br /><br />WR = win rate<br />BR = bank roll<br />SD = standard deviation<br />e = well e, the exponential 2.7183 blahShamanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12987001120993043887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-13695315717815251432010-03-05T17:01:22.441-08:002010-03-05T17:01:22.441-08:00Jesse, thanks for all the words. Seems like it wo...Jesse, thanks for all the words. Seems like it would be hard to share all this so open but it does help me to read and make decisions.Going for it?https://www.blogger.com/profile/01279617065003632735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5834507208618294785.post-22565946339198764222010-03-05T14:44:20.741-08:002010-03-05T14:44:20.741-08:00Here's the code if anybody is interested:
//p...Here's the code if anybody is interested:<br /><br />//propping case<br /><br /> double fortyStDev = (12.00*80.00);<br /> double twentyStDev = (440.00);<br /> int busto = 0;<br /> for (int trial = 0; trial < 10000; trial++) {<br /> double roll = 14000.00;<br /> Random r = new Random();<br /> for (int hour = 0; hour < 1000; hour++) {<br /> int hourType = r.nextInt(44);<br /> double result = r.nextGaussian();<br /> if (hourType < 8) {<br /> roll = roll + (result*twentyStDev + 25);<br /> } else {<br /> if (hourType < 27) {<br /> roll = roll + (result*fortyStDev);<br /> } else {<br /> //do nothing I didn't play<br /> }<br /> }<br /> if (roll < 0.0) {<br /> busto++;<br /> break;<br /> }<br /> if ((hour % 80) == 0){<br /> roll = roll + 2800.00;<br /> }<br /> if ((hour % 175) == 0) {<br /> roll = roll - 2000.00;<br /> }<br /> if (roll < 0.0) {<br /> busto++;<br /> break;<br /> }<br /><br /> }<br /><br /> }<br /> System.out.println("Propping Bustos: " + busto);<br /><br /> busto = 0;<br /> for (int trial = 0; trial < 0; trial++) {<br /> double roll = 14000.00;<br /> Random r = new Random();<br /> for (int hour = 0; hour < 900; hour++) {<br /><br /> double result = r.nextGaussian();<br /> roll = roll + (result*twentyStDev) + 50;<br /><br /> if ((hour % 150) == 0) {<br /> roll = roll - 2000.00;<br /> }<br /><br /> if (roll < 0.0) {<br /> busto++;<br /> break;<br /> }<br /><br /> }<br /> }<br /> System.out.println("Freelance Bustos: " + busto);jesse8888https://www.blogger.com/profile/04372291760946904904noreply@blogger.com