Thursday, March 25, 2010

In a Nutshell

This is how I have been running the last 4 days:

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with T J
3 folds, BTN raises, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) J A Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (2.25 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN calls

River: (4.25 BB) K (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN calls

Final Pot: 6.25 BB
BTN mucks Q T
Hero shows T J (a Royal Flush)
Hero wins 6.083 BB
(Rake: $1.00)

Basically I can do no wrong. Since Monday I've taken something like 9 racks out of the Commerce 20/40 game, and also run like the wind online (I even took a little "shot" back at the 3/6 games tonight with so so results). Playing live is so much fun when you're actually allowed to win. Yesterday in the first 40 minutes of a new table I won about 3 racks of chips by dragging literally a dozen pots. There are regulars who are already afraid of me (this is kind of bad), making a point to seat change away from being on my right and coming over to my table and saying things like "stay right there, this looks like a good spot for you." The same guy who said that actually switched to my table and commented that he was there to get an education by observing how I played. I'm not even kidding. Have I magically started playing better? I don't think so. In fact I feel like I've butchered a couple of hands the last few days, take a "passive get me to show down" line when a "bombs away I am crushing you" line would have been more appropriate. My staking agreement has even come to an end (with my backer getting out of the the deal even). In general, things are good when you flop pairs. They are better when you flop sets. To wit:

Commerce 20/40 that is just amazingly good. Somebody limps and I open the AA in middle position. The guy on my left 3 bets, the blinds fold, the limper doesn't fold because why would he ever do that, I cap, and they both call:

AQ7 with a flush draw

I bet, am raised, 3 bet, and am called, with the limper taking all the action squarely on the chin.

On your good days you'll get like 2 bets in on the big streets. The raiser will have AK and just call you down and the other yoekel will miss his draw or whatever and you'll be good to go. On your bad days the K of the flush will roll off and the limper will righteously check/raise you on the turn and you'll miss on the river and he'll show you JT. On your great days that last thing will happen but you'll pair up on the river. On your best days, on the days where nothing can go wrong:

AQ7-7

The limper will check and you'll bet, you'll get raised, the limper will call off 14 chips all in, you'll 3 bet, and the other guy will say "You really have aces?" and you'll just sit there and smile cause it's not like he's folding QQ. Even if you turned your hand face up he'd have to call at least this bet to try to hit the jackpot anyway. And the river will brick off and he'll pay you with his QQ and all of a sudden you'll be up 2 racks even though you started the day by digging a $700 hole.

Or you can flop a set like this:

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is MP with 8 8
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BTN 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (9.5 SB) A 3 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn: (9.25 BB) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, BB calls

River: (12.25 BB) J (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN folds, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls

Final Pot: 18.25 BB
BB mucks A J
Hero shows 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights)
Hero wins 17.75 BB
(Rake: $3.00)

The river action here is actually pretty scary if you don't stop and think about it. But let's do that. The BB check/raised the flop. What does that mean he has? Probably an ace or a flush draw. He declined to cap, so that kinda rules out the other two sets. He then check/called the turn, closing the action, which means he does not, under any circumstances, have a flush. Then on the river he check/raises me? Well what do I lose to? 42? Nope, wouldn't play preflop and would have raised the turn. AA? Not enough action. JJ? Couldn't have raised the flop, I don't think. So he must have AJ and I have an easy 3 bet, right? Right. At least that's how it works when you're running good.

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